CINBengals
-
13
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
74°F
10 mph
44
BALRavens
-
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
74°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
10
3
0
13
Ravens
10
7
11
10
38
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
322
430
Total Plays
69
58
Yards / Play
4.7
7.4
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.39
Passing Yards
193
308
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
9.6
EPA / Pass
-0.46
+0.42
Rushing Yards
129
122
Rush Attempts
28
23
Yards / Rush
4.6
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.21
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
26
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
27%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.04
--
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-28
-21
Sack EPA
-11.10
-5.81
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
--
50
Penalty EPA
--
-4.36
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+146
Home nfelo
1,581
Away nfelo
1,471
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.1
Home QB Adjustment
-0.6
Away QB Adjustment
-1.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-1.8
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
12
Yards / Game
23
23
Passing Yards / Game
22
25
Rushing Yards / Game
18
22
EPA
EPA / Play
17
16
EPA / Pass
23
14
EPA / Rush
8
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
19
Interceptions / Game
18
13
Fumbles / Game
18
11
Turnover EPA / Game
19
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
11
4th Down Efficiency
3
13
RZ Efficiency
18
1
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
8
Yards / Game
11
8
Passing Yards / Game
17
8
Rushing Yards / Game
11
14
EPA
EPA / Play
10
4
EPA / Pass
13
3
EPA / Rush
17
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
7
Interceptions / Game
4
17
Fumbles / Game
12
4
Turnover EPA / Game
27
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
10
4th Down Efficiency
26
7
RZ Efficiency
6
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
4-6
SU
2-6-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U