CINBengals
1-2
3
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
69°F
3 mph
27
BALRavens
3-1
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
69°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
0
0
3
3
Ravens
10
7
3
1
21
Spread
-12.5
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
205
332
Total Plays
65
62
Yards / Play
3.2
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.48
-0.05
Passing Yards
135
171
Comp/Att
19/30(63%)
19/37(51%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
4.6
EPA / Pass
-0.79
-0.14
Rushing Yards
70
161
Rush Attempts
28
24
Yards / Rush
2.5
6.7
EPA / Rush
-0.31
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
17
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
19%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-17.01
-3.45
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-48
-9
Sack EPA
-14.61
-0.67
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
40
25
Penalty EPA
-3.70
-3.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5
Win Probability
Market84.1%
Model83.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+233
Home nfelo
1,653
Away nfelo
1,423
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.4
Home QB Adjustment
+6.3
Away QB Adjustment
+6.7
Market Regression
-16.9
Final Difference
286.4
Model Spread
-12.5
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
1
Yards / Game
30
6
Passing Yards / Game
27
1
Rushing Yards / Game
23
6
EPA
EPA / Play
25
4
EPA / Pass
23
7
EPA / Rush
30
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
15
Interceptions / Game
11
27
Fumbles / Game
27
8
Turnover EPA / Game
6
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
2
4th Down Efficiency
4
10
RZ Efficiency
29
15
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
21
Yards / Game
19
25
Passing Yards / Game
30
2
Rushing Yards / Game
1
29
EPA
EPA / Play
7
26
EPA / Pass
19
24
EPA / Rush
1
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
6
Interceptions / Game
14
20
Fumbles / Game
16
24
Turnover EPA / Game
25
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
20
4th Down Efficiency
16
24
RZ Efficiency
17
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
3-6-1
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Ravens
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U