CINBengals
2-2
17
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
70°F
019
BALRavens
2-2
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
10
0
7
17
Ravens
3
7
3
6
19
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
291
325
Total Plays
59
61
Yards / Play
4.9
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.03
Passing Yards
190
170
Comp/Att
24/35(69%)
19/32(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.18
Rushing Yards
101
155
Rush Attempts
21
28
Yards / Rush
4.8
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.15
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
10
7
Rushing 1st downs
7
13
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
40%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.16
-2.93
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-27
-4
Sack EPA
-6.06
-0.58
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
20
48
Penalty EPA
-3.15
-7.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+76
Home nfelo
1,587
Away nfelo
1,569
Home Field
+34.8
Base HFA
+38.7
Divisional Adj
-17.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+22.6
Home QB Adjustment
+22.3
Away QB Adjustment
-0.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.2
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+22.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
3
Yards / Game
11
6
Passing Yards / Game
1
31
Rushing Yards / Game
28
3
EPA
EPA / Play
5
11
EPA / Pass
4
18
EPA / Rush
18
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
21
Interceptions / Game
13
16
Fumbles / Game
4
7
Turnover EPA / Game
23
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
4
4th Down Efficiency
32
28
RZ Efficiency
7
4
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
5
Yards / Game
16
17
Passing Yards / Game
28
29
Rushing Yards / Game
3
5
EPA
EPA / Play
12
7
EPA / Pass
21
10
EPA / Rush
5
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
7
Interceptions / Game
16
15
Fumbles / Game
18
3
Turnover EPA / Game
18
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
19
4th Down Efficiency
25
12
RZ Efficiency
30
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
1-9
O/U
Ravens
2-8
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U