CINBengals
4-2
41
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
61°F
6 mph
17
BALRavens
5-1
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
61°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
10
14
14
41
Ravens
0
10
7
0
17
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
520
393
Total Plays
63
71
Yards / Play
8.3
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.30
-0.16
Passing Yards
409
278
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
20/42(48%)
Yards / Pass
10.8
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.52
-0.32
Rushing Yards
111
115
Rush Attempts
24
24
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
31%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.82
--
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-7
-18
Sack EPA
-1.33
-7.56
Penalties
1
5
Penalty Yards
--
46
Penalty EPA
--
-3.36
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+196
Home nfelo
1,638
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+37.0
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
-18.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.9
Home QB Adjustment
+9.1
Away QB Adjustment
+6.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
18
Yards / Game
14
24
Passing Yards / Game
3
29
Rushing Yards / Game
24
2
EPA
EPA / Play
12
23
EPA / Pass
9
30
EPA / Rush
22
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
3
Interceptions / Game
11
27
Fumbles / Game
2
27
Turnover EPA / Game
17
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
3
4th Down Efficiency
5
23
RZ Efficiency
23
12
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
13
Yards / Game
6
19
Passing Yards / Game
6
28
Rushing Yards / Game
3
7
EPA
EPA / Play
16
10
EPA / Pass
20
14
EPA / Rush
8
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
1
Interceptions / Game
28
8
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
5
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
20
4th Down Efficiency
3
2
RZ Efficiency
13
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Ravens
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U