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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ ravens week 7, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
4-2
41
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
61°F
6 mph
17
BALRavens
5-1
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
61°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
10
14
14
41
Ravens
0
10
7
0
17

Spread

CIN logo
+6.5

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
520
393
Total Plays
63
71
Yards / Play
8.3
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.30
-0.16
Passing Yards
409
278
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
20/42(48%)
Yards / Pass
10.8
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.52
-0.32
Rushing Yards
111
115
Rush Attempts
24
24
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
31%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.82
--
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-7
-18
Sack EPA
-1.33
-7.56
Penalties
1
5
Penalty Yards
--
46
Penalty EPA
--
-3.36

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+188
Home nfelo
1,635
Away nfelo
1,486
Home Field
+37.0
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
-18.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.9
Home QB Adjustment
+9.1
Away QB Adjustment
+6.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

J. Burrow headshot

J. Burrow

Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
Value
Ptile
10/25
9.4
95
11/01
4.1
75
11/15
-2.8
25
11/22
-1.9
30
09/12
-0.3
51
09/19
-8.0
8
09/26
2.8
74
09/30
5.3
85
10/10
-1.1
45
10/17
0.8
59
L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+9.1
Value
Ptile
12/27
5.9
82
01/03
3.4
70
01/10
0.9
50
01/16
-6.1
10
09/13
2.4
71
09/19
7.5
92
09/26
-3.8
26
10/03
1.6
65
10/11
16.3
99
10/17
-3.2
29

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Bengals logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
9
18
Yards / Game
14
24
Passing Yards / Game
3
29
Rushing Yards / Game
24
2

EPA

EPA / Play
12
23
EPA / Pass
9
30
EPA / Rush
22
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
3
Interceptions / Game
11
27
Fumbles / Game
2
27
Turnover EPA / Game
17
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
3
4th Down Efficiency
5
23
RZ Efficiency
23
12
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Ravens logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
17
13
Yards / Game
6
19
Passing Yards / Game
6
28
Rushing Yards / Game
3
7

EPA

EPA / Play
16
10
EPA / Pass
20
14
EPA / Rush
8
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
1
Interceptions / Game
28
8
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
5
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
20
4th Down Efficiency
3
2
RZ Efficiency
13
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
-23
L
L
U
12/21
10
W
W
O
12/27
6
W
W
O
01/03
-35
L
L
U
09/12
3
W
W
O
09/19
-3
L
L
U
09/26
14
W
W
U
09/30
3
W
L
U
10/10
-3
L
L
U
10/17
23
W
W
U
BAL logo

Ravens

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
14
W
W
U
01/03
35
W
W
U
01/10
7
W
W
U
01/16
-14
L
L
U
09/13
-6
L
L
O
09/19
1
W
W
O
09/26
2
W
L
U
10/03
16
W
W
U
10/11
6
W
L
O
10/17
28
W
W
U