CINBengals
4-5
34
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
69°F
6 mph
35
BALRavens
6-3
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
69°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
7
7
13
34
Ravens
0
7
7
21
35
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
470
391
Total Plays
76
59
Yards / Play
6.2
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.21
+0.28
Passing Yards
421
--
Comp/Att
34/57(60%)
25/33(76%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
--
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.60
Rushing Yards
49
101
Rush Attempts
16
26
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
20
Passing 1st downs
21
14
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
50%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.82
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-2.73
--
Penalties
3
11
Penalty Yards
23
81
Penalty EPA
-2.65
-14.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+137
Home nfelo
1,644
Away nfelo
1,568
Home Field
+37.7
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+23.0
Home QB Adjustment
+39.2
Away QB Adjustment
+16.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+2.2
Team Elo Adj
+16.1
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+4.4
Team Elo Adj
+39.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
8
Yards / Game
9
8
Passing Yards / Game
1
32
Rushing Yards / Game
30
1
EPA
EPA / Play
6
19
EPA / Pass
5
11
EPA / Rush
14
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
30
Interceptions / Game
9
21
Fumbles / Game
27
29
Turnover EPA / Game
18
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
20
4th Down Efficiency
21
2
RZ Efficiency
5
14
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
25
Yards / Game
1
24
Passing Yards / Game
13
13
Rushing Yards / Game
1
19
EPA
EPA / Play
1
28
EPA / Pass
1
17
EPA / Rush
1
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
10
Interceptions / Game
1
9
Fumbles / Game
15
8
Turnover EPA / Game
27
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
23
4th Down Efficiency
15
19
RZ Efficiency
1
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Ravens
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-2-1
O/U