CINBengals
4-11
7
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
51°F
7 mph
13
BALRavens
11-4
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
51°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
0
0
7
7
Ravens
3
3
7
0
13
Spread
+9.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
395
199
Total Plays
76
50
Yards / Play
5.2
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.24
Passing Yards
--
101
Comp/Att
32/45(71%)
14/19(74%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.64
Rushing Yards
90
98
Rush Attempts
31
27
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.47
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
10
Passing 1st downs
14
5
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
41%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-15.62
-8.20
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-24
Sack EPA
--
-5.81
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
49
45
Penalty EPA
-3.83
-7.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+230
Home nfelo
1,632
Away nfelo
1,440
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.0
Home QB Adjustment
+13.4
Away QB Adjustment
+9.4
Market Regression
-22.4
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+9.4
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+13.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
3
Yards / Game
20
4
Passing Yards / Game
24
12
Rushing Yards / Game
27
3
EPA
EPA / Play
19
6
EPA / Pass
17
8
EPA / Rush
31
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
9
Interceptions / Game
24
7
Fumbles / Game
26
7
Turnover EPA / Game
6
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
12
4th Down Efficiency
5
18
RZ Efficiency
23
6
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
24
Yards / Game
22
14
Passing Yards / Game
15
10
Rushing Yards / Game
16
19
EPA
EPA / Play
10
28
EPA / Pass
10
20
EPA / Rush
18
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
25
Interceptions / Game
3
14
Fumbles / Game
17
17
Turnover EPA / Game
23
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
13
4th Down Efficiency
19
3
RZ Efficiency
22
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U