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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ ravens week 17, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
4-11
7
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
51°F
7 mph
13
BALRavens
11-4
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
51°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
0
0
7
7
Ravens
3
3
7
0
13

Spread

CIN logo
+9.5

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
395
199
Total Plays
76
50
Yards / Play
5.2
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.24
Passing Yards
--
101
Comp/Att
32/45(71%)
14/19(74%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.64
Rushing Yards
90
98
Rush Attempts
31
27
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.47
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
20
10
Passing 1st downs
14
5
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
41%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
5
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-15.62
-8.20
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-24
Sack EPA
--
-5.81
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
49
45
Penalty EPA
-3.83
-7.12

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+230
Home nfelo
1,632
Away nfelo
1,440
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.0
Home QB Adjustment
+13.4
Away QB Adjustment
+9.4
Market Regression
-22.4
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5

Quarterbacks

C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+9.4
Value
Ptile
10/24
9.9
98
10/31
-1.9
37
11/08
-1.0
43
11/14
-0.5
46
11/21
0.0
49
11/25
-9.2
5
12/05
1.6
58
12/12
-7.0
10
12/19
-0.1
49
12/26
10.8
98
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+13.4
Value
Ptile
10/17
5.2
84
10/24
2.2
63
11/07
2.7
67
11/11
2.0
61
11/21
3.4
72
11/28
1.6
58
12/05
-0.9
43
12/13
-1.5
40
12/19
-1.4
41
12/26
-1.0
43

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Bengals logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
23
3
Yards / Game
20
4
Passing Yards / Game
24
12
Rushing Yards / Game
27
3

EPA

EPA / Play
19
6
EPA / Pass
17
8
EPA / Rush
31
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
9
Interceptions / Game
24
7
Fumbles / Game
26
7
Turnover EPA / Game
6
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
12
4th Down Efficiency
5
18
RZ Efficiency
23
6
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Ravens logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
13
24
Yards / Game
22
14
Passing Yards / Game
15
10
Rushing Yards / Game
16
19

EPA

EPA / Play
10
28
EPA / Pass
10
20
EPA / Rush
18
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
25
Interceptions / Game
3
14
Fumbles / Game
17
17
Turnover EPA / Game
23
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
13
4th Down Efficiency
19
3
RZ Efficiency
22
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/24
-7
L
L
O
10/31
-8
L
L
U
11/08
-6
L
L
O
11/14
-6
L
W
U
11/21
-18
L
L
O
11/25
-16
L
L
U
12/05
-4
L
W
O
12/12
-16
L
L
U
12/19
2
W
W
U
12/26
14
W
W
O
BAL logo

Ravens

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/17
-3
L
P
U
10/24
3
W
L
O
11/07
16
W
W
U
11/11
-5
L
L
O
11/21
24
W
W
O
11/28
7
W
L
U
12/05
-3
L
L
U
12/13
6
W
W
O
12/19
6
W
W
O
12/26
10
W
W
U