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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ ravens week 17, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
6-9
31
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
19°F
12 mph
27
BALRavens
9-6
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
19°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
10
1
7
25
Ravens
0
10
7
10
27

Spread

CIN logo
+8

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
359
312
Total Plays
75
74
Yards / Play
4.8
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.13
Passing Yards
213
194
Comp/Att
23/44(52%)
25/47(53%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
4.1
EPA / Pass
+0.05
-0.38
Rushing Yards
146
118
Rush Attempts
30
26
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.16
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
33%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
17
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.30
-11.42
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-9
-9
Sack EPA
-2.07
-0.33
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
60
47
Penalty EPA
-5.29
-4.83

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+179
Home nfelo
1,528
Away nfelo
1,424
Home Field
+51.0
Base HFA
+56.8
Divisional Adj
-25.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+24.4
Home QB Adjustment
+5.7
Away QB Adjustment
-18.7
Market Regression
-26.9
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-18.7
Value
Ptile
10/22
-6.5
13
10/29
-0.5
48
11/05
-3.4
28
11/12
2.1
68
11/19
0.4
54
11/26
3.0
74
12/04
2.9
74
12/10
-6.5
14
12/17
-10.4
2
12/24
-3.3
29
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+5.7
Value
Ptile
10/15
-8.4
7
10/22
-2.7
34
10/26
-1.4
43
11/05
-0.4
49
11/19
-3.6
27
11/27
-1.2
44
12/03
3.6
79
12/10
1.4
63
12/17
2.9
73
12/23
4.5
82

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Bengals logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
25
5
Yards / Game
32
12
Passing Yards / Game
18
12
Rushing Yards / Game
31
16

EPA

EPA / Play
26
2
EPA / Pass
21
2
EPA / Rush
28
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
25
Interceptions / Game
13
1
Fumbles / Game
21
4
Turnover EPA / Game
12
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
8
4th Down Efficiency
21
11
RZ Efficiency
11
9
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Ravens logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
9
17
Yards / Game
27
18
Passing Yards / Game
31
8
Rushing Yards / Game
10
30

EPA

EPA / Play
14
14
EPA / Pass
20
10
EPA / Rush
14
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
13
Interceptions / Game
17
18
Fumbles / Game
1
28
Turnover EPA / Game
17
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
24
4th Down Efficiency
4
16
RZ Efficiency
9
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/22
-15
L
L
O
10/29
1
W
L
O
11/05
-16
L
L
U
11/12
-4
L
W
O
11/19
3
W
W
U
11/26
14
W
W
O
12/04
-3
L
W
O
12/10
-26
L
L
U
12/17
-27
L
L
U
12/24
9
W
W
U
BAL logo

Ravens

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/15
-3
L
L
O
10/22
-8
L
L
O
10/26
40
W
W
O
11/05
-3
L
P
O
11/19
23
W
W
U
11/27
7
W
L
U
12/03
24
W
W
O
12/10
-1
L
W
O
12/17
17
W
W
U
12/23
7
W
L
U