CINBengals
6-9
31
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
19°F
12 mph
27
BALRavens
9-6
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
19°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
10
1
7
25
Ravens
0
10
7
10
27
Spread
+8
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
359
312
Total Plays
75
74
Yards / Play
4.8
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.13
Passing Yards
213
194
Comp/Att
23/44(52%)
25/47(53%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
4.1
EPA / Pass
+0.05
-0.38
Rushing Yards
146
118
Rush Attempts
30
26
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.16
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
33%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
17
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.30
-11.42
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-9
-9
Sack EPA
-2.07
-0.33
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
60
47
Penalty EPA
-5.29
-4.83
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+176
Home nfelo
1,528
Away nfelo
1,426
Home Field
+50.3
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
-25.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+24.4
Home QB Adjustment
+5.7
Away QB Adjustment
-18.7
Market Regression
-26.4
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-18.7
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
5
Yards / Game
32
12
Passing Yards / Game
18
12
Rushing Yards / Game
31
16
EPA
EPA / Play
26
2
EPA / Pass
21
2
EPA / Rush
28
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
25
Interceptions / Game
13
1
Fumbles / Game
21
4
Turnover EPA / Game
12
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
8
4th Down Efficiency
21
11
RZ Efficiency
11
9
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
17
Yards / Game
27
18
Passing Yards / Game
31
8
Rushing Yards / Game
10
30
EPA
EPA / Play
14
14
EPA / Pass
20
10
EPA / Rush
14
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
13
Interceptions / Game
17
18
Fumbles / Game
1
28
Turnover EPA / Game
17
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
24
4th Down Efficiency
4
16
RZ Efficiency
9
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Ravens
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U