CINBengals
2-3
30
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
026
NOSaints
2-3
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
7
7
9
30
Saints
7
13
3
3
26
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
348
399
Total Plays
55
71
Yards / Play
6.3
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.28
+0.14
Passing Yards
273
171
Comp/Att
28/38(74%)
19/36(53%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.10
Rushing Yards
75
228
Rush Attempts
14
34
Yards / Rush
5.4
6.7
EPA / Rush
+0.39
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
60%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
17
Red Zone %
100%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
+5.04
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-27
-7
Sack EPA
-6.40
-1.75
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
30
34
Penalty EPA
-4.97
-4.03
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-67
Home nfelo
1,511
Away nfelo
1,570
Home Field
+32.0
Base HFA
+39.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-40.4
Home QB Adjustment
-41.6
Away QB Adjustment
-1.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-41.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
9
Yards / Game
11
5
Passing Yards / Game
1
12
Rushing Yards / Game
28
24
EPA
EPA / Play
5
9
EPA / Pass
4
6
EPA / Rush
18
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
18
Interceptions / Game
13
30
Fumbles / Game
4
25
Turnover EPA / Game
23
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
24
4th Down Efficiency
32
7
RZ Efficiency
7
5
Saints Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
5
Yards / Game
18
17
Passing Yards / Game
21
29
Rushing Yards / Game
19
5
EPA
EPA / Play
24
7
EPA / Pass
13
10
EPA / Rush
29
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
7
Interceptions / Game
17
15
Fumbles / Game
25
3
Turnover EPA / Game
5
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
19
4th Down Efficiency
30
12
RZ Efficiency
21
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
5-5
SU
8-2
ATS
0-10
O/U
Saints
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U