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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ seahawks week 8, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CIN logo
CINBengals
4-2
34
TBD
Lumen Field
56°F
14 mph
12
SEASeahawks
2-4
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
56°F
14 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
10
7
0
5
22
Seahawks
0
3
3
6
12

Spread

CIN logo
-1.5

Total

OVER
37.5

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
252
411
Total Plays
57
72
Yards / Play
4.4
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.32
Passing Yards
160
350
Comp/Att
18/29(62%)
25/48(52%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.10
-0.09
Rushing Yards
92
61
Rush Attempts
27
20
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.53
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
43%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.44
-13.52
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-8
-25
Sack EPA
-1.67
-5.94
Penalties
7
11
Penalty Yards
65
80
Penalty EPA
-6.97
-9.18

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-35
Home nfelo
1,427
Away nfelo
1,486
Home Field
+36.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-12.4
Home QB Adjustment
-11.9
Away QB Adjustment
+0.5
Market Regression
+21.1
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+0.5
Value
Ptile
09/11
-4.3
23
09/18
5.4
84
09/25
-6.9
10
10/02
-1.1
44
10/09
-1.5
41
10/16
4.6
80
C. Whitehurst headshot

C. Whitehurst

Proj. Value
-3.6
Team Elo Adj
-11.9
Value
Ptile
11/07
-4.5
20
01/02
3.4
72
10/23
-11.0
1

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Bengals logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
19
7
Yards / Game
22
9
Passing Yards / Game
19
12
Rushing Yards / Game
21
15

EPA

EPA / Play
19
5
EPA / Pass
18
3
EPA / Rush
21
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
4
Interceptions / Game
19
3
Fumbles / Game
4
18
Turnover EPA / Game
26
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
10
4th Down Efficiency
25
30
RZ Efficiency
25
12
Seahawks Offense vs Bengals Defense
Seahawks logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
23
12
Yards / Game
28
6
Passing Yards / Game
23
19
Rushing Yards / Game
20
12

EPA

EPA / Play
25
10
EPA / Pass
20
11
EPA / Rush
27
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
27
Interceptions / Game
13
29
Fumbles / Game
17
9
Turnover EPA / Game
22
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
14
4th Down Efficiency
10
8
RZ Efficiency
21
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/12
-16
L
L
U
12/19
2
W
W
U
12/26
14
W
W
O
01/02
-6
L
W
U
09/11
10
W
W
O
09/18
-2
L
W
O
09/25
-5
L
L
U
10/02
3
W
W
O
10/09
10
W
W
O
10/16
10
W
W
O
SEA logo

Seahawks

4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/26
-23
L
L
O
01/02
10
W
W
U
01/08
5
W
W
O
01/16
-11
L
L
O
09/11
-16
L
L
O
09/18
-24
L
L
U
09/25
3
W
W
U
10/02
-2
L
W
O
10/09
11
W
W
O
10/23
-3
L
P
U