CINBengals
1-0
16
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
72°F
4 mph
24
PITSteelers
1-0
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
72°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
3
3
7
16
Steelers
7
3
7
7
24
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
412
374
Total Plays
73
74
Yards / Play
5.6
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.09
+0.01
Passing Yards
366
250
Comp/Att
31/54(57%)
19/37(51%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.00
+0.15
Rushing Yards
46
124
Rush Attempts
18
36
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
17
12
Rushing 1st downs
1
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
25%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
16
17
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-5.09
-2.83
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
--
-9
Sack EPA
-0.48
-1.47
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
31
54
Penalty EPA
-3.80
-7.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+66
Home nfelo
1,607
Away nfelo
1,602
Home Field
+51.9
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.2
Home QB Adjustment
+14.1
Away QB Adjustment
+4.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.9
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+14.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
10
Yards / Game
12
10
Passing Yards / Game
9
10
Rushing Yards / Game
13
8
EPA
EPA / Play
10
18
EPA / Pass
12
15
EPA / Rush
5
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
32
Interceptions / Game
6
19
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
27
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
24
4th Down Efficiency
3
19
RZ Efficiency
18
5
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
7
Yards / Game
6
17
Passing Yards / Game
25
25
Rushing Yards / Game
8
21
EPA
EPA / Play
6
22
EPA / Pass
7
14
EPA / Rush
3
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
7
Interceptions / Game
21
4
Fumbles / Game
4
27
Turnover EPA / Game
20
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
16
4th Down Efficiency
11
14
RZ Efficiency
16
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
5-3-2
ATS
5-5
O/U