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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ steelers week 2, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
1-0
16
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
72°F
4 mph
24
PITSteelers
1-0
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
72°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
3
3
7
16
Steelers
7
3
7
7
24

Spread

PIT logo
-3

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
412
374
Total Plays
73
74
Yards / Play
5.6
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.09
+0.01
Passing Yards
366
250
Comp/Att
31/54(57%)
19/37(51%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.00
+0.15
Rushing Yards
46
124
Rush Attempts
18
36
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
17
12
Rushing 1st downs
1
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
25%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
16
17
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-5.09
-2.83
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
--
-9
Sack EPA
-0.48
-1.47
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
31
54
Penalty EPA
-3.80
-7.45

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+68
Home nfelo
1,608
Away nfelo
1,602
Home Field
+52.6
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.2
Home QB Adjustment
+14.1
Away QB Adjustment
+4.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.9
Value
Ptile
10/11
4.3
80
10/18
6.1
87
11/01
-6.6
9
11/05
4.0
78
11/16
-5.3
13
11/22
2.3
66
11/29
4.5
81
12/06
5.1
82
12/13
-7.2
6
09/11
-1.0
40
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+14.1
Value
Ptile
11/08
1.2
59
11/29
4.1
79
12/06
11.2
98
12/13
1.6
62
12/20
5.5
85
12/27
-6.3
10
01/03
4.1
79
01/09
-1.4
40
01/17
1.3
60
09/12
5.0
82

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Bengals logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
24
10
Yards / Game
12
10
Passing Yards / Game
9
10
Rushing Yards / Game
13
8

EPA

EPA / Play
10
18
EPA / Pass
12
15
EPA / Rush
5
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
32
Interceptions / Game
6
19
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
27
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
24
4th Down Efficiency
3
19
RZ Efficiency
18
5
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Steelers logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
12
7
Yards / Game
6
17
Passing Yards / Game
25
25
Rushing Yards / Game
8
21

EPA

EPA / Play
6
22
EPA / Pass
7
14
EPA / Rush
3
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
7
Interceptions / Game
21
4
Fumbles / Game
4
27
Turnover EPA / Game
20
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
16
4th Down Efficiency
11
14
RZ Efficiency
16
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/16
-4
L
L
U
11/22
-3
L
W
O
11/29
24
W
W
U
12/06
34
W
W
U
12/13
-13
L
L
O
12/20
10
W
W
U
12/28
-3
L
W
U
01/03
8
W
L
U
01/09
-2
L
P
U
09/11
1
W
W
O
PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
5-3-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
21
W
W
U
11/29
-9
L
L
O
12/06
35
W
W
O
12/13
13
W
W
O
12/20
7
W
L
O
12/27
-3
L
L
U
01/03
16
W
W
U
01/09
2
W
P
U
01/17
-7
L
P
U
09/12
22
W
W
O