CINBengals
0-3
3
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
76°F
1 mph
27
PITSteelers
0-3
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
76°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
0
0
0
3
Steelers
0
10
14
3
27
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
175
326
Total Plays
64
56
Yards / Play
2.7
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.37
+0.05
Passing Yards
102
--
Comp/Att
21/37(57%)
27/31(87%)
Yards / Pass
2.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.71
+0.42
Rushing Yards
73
66
Rush Attempts
19
25
Yards / Rush
3.8
2.6
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.42
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
20
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
29%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.23
-4.76
Sacks
8
--
Sack Yards
-69
--
Sack EPA
-16.86
--
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
60
37
Penalty EPA
-4.76
-6.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model58.6%
Spread Pick
Bengals+3.5
Expected Value
+5.8%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+14
Home nfelo
1,547
Away nfelo
1,422
Home Field
+30.8
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
-25.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-141.6
Home QB Adjustment
-135.9
Away QB Adjustment
+5.6
Market Regression
-2.1
Final Difference
60.1
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
M. Rudolph
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-135.9
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
5
Yards / Game
26
5
Passing Yards / Game
11
13
Rushing Yards / Game
25
14
EPA
EPA / Play
25
2
EPA / Pass
29
4
EPA / Rush
22
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
24
Interceptions / Game
23
2
Fumbles / Game
27
1
Turnover EPA / Game
6
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
6
4th Down Efficiency
12
18
RZ Efficiency
29
3
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
25
Yards / Game
30
29
Passing Yards / Game
30
9
Rushing Yards / Game
29
32
EPA
EPA / Play
31
30
EPA / Pass
30
29
EPA / Rush
32
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
9
Interceptions / Game
28
21
Fumbles / Game
22
25
Turnover EPA / Game
5
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
25
4th Down Efficiency
32
20
RZ Efficiency
32
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
1-9
SU
7-3
ATS
3-5-2
O/U
Steelers
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U