CINBengals
2-3
14
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
79°F
6 mph
29
PITSteelers
4-2
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
79°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
7
0
0
14
Steelers
7
13
6
3
29
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
179
420
Total Plays
51
68
Yards / Play
3.5
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.20
+0.09
Passing Yards
108
--
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
15/25(60%)
Yards / Pass
3.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.31
+0.43
Rushing Yards
71
152
Rush Attempts
17
43
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
21
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
27%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
3
2
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
100%
17%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.13
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-32
--
Sack EPA
-6.12
--
Penalties
5
1
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+88
Home nfelo
1,607
Away nfelo
1,516
Home Field
+6.8
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
-25.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-44.4
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-10.1
Home QB Adjustment
-13.6
Away QB Adjustment
-3.5
Market Regression
-15.7
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-3.5
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-13.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
11
Yards / Game
32
5
Passing Yards / Game
18
13
Rushing Yards / Game
31
13
EPA
EPA / Play
26
17
EPA / Pass
21
12
EPA / Rush
28
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
28
Interceptions / Game
13
11
Fumbles / Game
21
22
Turnover EPA / Game
12
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
13
4th Down Efficiency
21
9
RZ Efficiency
11
31
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
17
Yards / Game
3
18
Passing Yards / Game
5
8
Rushing Yards / Game
22
30
EPA
EPA / Play
5
14
EPA / Pass
6
10
EPA / Rush
19
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
13
Interceptions / Game
24
18
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
18
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
24
4th Down Efficiency
13
16
RZ Efficiency
18
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U