CINBengals
6-0
16
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
62°F
11 mph
10
PITSteelers
4-3
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
62°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
3
0
10
16
Steelers
7
0
3
0
10
Spread
+0
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
296
356
Total Plays
64
67
Yards / Play
4.6
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.27
Passing Yards
218
240
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
28/45(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.28
Rushing Yards
78
116
Rush Attempts
23
19
Yards / Rush
3.4
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.28
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
21
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
27%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
33%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.77
-11.55
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-13
-22
Sack EPA
-3.40
-4.02
Penalties
10
10
Penalty Yards
94
91
Penalty EPA
-9.45
-5.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+1
Home nfelo
1,578
Away nfelo
1,595
Home Field
+7.5
Base HFA
+62.1
Divisional Adj
-28.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.3
Surface Adj
+21.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.5
Home QB Adjustment
+42.5
Away QB Adjustment
+31.1
Market Regression
+25.1
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+31.1
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+42.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
9
Yards / Game
16
19
Passing Yards / Game
30
30
Rushing Yards / Game
13
5
EPA
EPA / Play
6
9
EPA / Pass
2
13
EPA / Rush
23
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
18
Interceptions / Game
6
8
Fumbles / Game
25
2
Turnover EPA / Game
25
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
15
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
5
6
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
2
Yards / Game
3
13
Passing Yards / Game
13
24
Rushing Yards / Game
14
7
EPA
EPA / Play
9
7
EPA / Pass
12
5
EPA / Rush
7
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
23
Interceptions / Game
29
3
Fumbles / Game
7
27
Turnover EPA / Game
16
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
14
4th Down Efficiency
29
16
RZ Efficiency
13
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
8-2
SU
7-2-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Steelers
6-4
SU
7-2-1
ATS
1-9
O/U