CINBengals
2-5
10
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
52°F
21 mph
36
PITSteelers
8-0
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
52°F
21 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
7
0
3
10
Steelers
12
10
7
7
36
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
324
377
Total Plays
65
67
Yards / Play
5.0
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.29
+0.15
Passing Yards
185
--
Comp/Att
21/40(53%)
27/47(57%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.41
+0.23
Rushing Yards
139
44
Rush Attempts
21
20
Yards / Rush
6.6
2.2
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
9
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
0%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
--
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.60
+4.90
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-28
--
Sack EPA
-5.32
--
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
65
45
Penalty EPA
-6.40
-4.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+181
Home nfelo
1,601
Away nfelo
1,417
Home Field
-1.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-4.8
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.3
Home QB Adjustment
+17.5
Away QB Adjustment
+18.8
Market Regression
-69.4
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+18.8
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
5
Yards / Game
30
3
Passing Yards / Game
27
8
Rushing Yards / Game
23
13
EPA
EPA / Play
25
2
EPA / Pass
23
2
EPA / Rush
30
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
32
Interceptions / Game
11
4
Fumbles / Game
27
11
Turnover EPA / Game
6
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
6
4th Down Efficiency
4
1
RZ Efficiency
29
5
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
21
Yards / Game
22
25
Passing Yards / Game
31
2
Rushing Yards / Game
32
29
EPA
EPA / Play
19
26
EPA / Pass
15
24
EPA / Rush
32
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
6
Interceptions / Game
25
20
Fumbles / Game
9
24
Turnover EPA / Game
17
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
20
4th Down Efficiency
11
24
RZ Efficiency
8
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
3-6-1
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Steelers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U