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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ steelers week 10, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
2-5
10
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
52°F
21 mph
36
PITSteelers
8-0
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
52°F
21 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
7
0
3
10
Steelers
12
10
7
7
36

Spread

PIT logo
-6.5

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
324
377
Total Plays
65
67
Yards / Play
5.0
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.29
+0.15
Passing Yards
185
--
Comp/Att
21/40(53%)
27/47(57%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.41
+0.23
Rushing Yards
139
44
Rush Attempts
21
20
Yards / Rush
6.6
2.2
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
9
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
0%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
--
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.60
+4.90
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-28
--
Sack EPA
-5.32
--
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
65
45
Penalty EPA
-6.40
-4.46

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+179
Home nfelo
1,600
Away nfelo
1,418
Home Field
-1.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-4.8
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.3
Home QB Adjustment
+17.5
Away QB Adjustment
+18.8
Market Regression
-67.1
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

J. Burrow headshot

J. Burrow

Proj. Value
+1.8
Team Elo Adj
+18.8
Value
Ptile
09/13
-1.2
35
09/17
3.4
69
09/27
-1.9
29
10/04
1.4
53
10/11
-9.8
4
10/18
0.9
51
10/25
9.4
95
11/01
4.1
75
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.5
Value
Ptile
09/08
-2.1
38
09/15
-5.6
17
09/14
2.3
61
09/20
3.4
69
09/27
-1.1
37
10/11
6.1
84
10/18
-3.1
23
10/25
-2.1
29
11/01
0.8
50
11/08
8.0
92

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Bengals logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
29
5
Yards / Game
30
3
Passing Yards / Game
27
8
Rushing Yards / Game
23
13

EPA

EPA / Play
25
2
EPA / Pass
23
2
EPA / Rush
30
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
32
Interceptions / Game
11
4
Fumbles / Game
27
11
Turnover EPA / Game
6
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
6
4th Down Efficiency
4
1
RZ Efficiency
29
5
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Steelers logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
12
21
Yards / Game
22
25
Passing Yards / Game
31
2
Rushing Yards / Game
32
29

EPA

EPA / Play
19
26
EPA / Pass
15
24
EPA / Rush
32
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
6
Interceptions / Game
25
20
Fumbles / Game
9
24
Turnover EPA / Game
17
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
20
4th Down Efficiency
11
24
RZ Efficiency
8
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

3-6-1
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
-3
L
L
O
12/29
10
W
W
O
09/13
-3
L
L
U
09/17
-5
L
W
O
09/27
0
T
W
U
10/04
8
W
W
O
10/11
-24
L
L
U
10/18
-4
L
W
O
10/25
-3
L
W
O
11/01
11
W
W
O
PIT logo

Steelers

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
-6
L
L
U
12/29
-18
L
L
O
09/14
10
W
W
U
09/20
5
W
L
O
09/27
7
W
W
O
10/11
9
W
W
O
10/18
31
W
W
U
10/25
3
W
W
P
11/01
4
W
W
O
11/08
5
W
L
U