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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ steelers week 11, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
5-4
37
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
27°F
12 mph
30
PITSteelers
3-6
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
27°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
10
7
10
10
37
Steelers
3
17
3
7
30

Spread

CIN logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
39

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
408
351
Total Plays
65
68
Yards / Play
6.3
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.03
Passing Yards
346
249
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
25/42(60%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.33
-0.05
Rushing Yards
62
102
Rush Attempts
24
24
Yards / Rush
2.6
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
18
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
9
17
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.11
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-9
-16
Sack EPA
-3.21
-2.28
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
44
70
Penalty EPA
-5.57
-5.97

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model69.7%
Spread Pick
CIN logo
Bengals-3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.9%
Cover Probability
56.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-189
Home nfelo
1,429
Away nfelo
1,569
Home Field
+4.8
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
-17.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-30.9
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-53.4
Home QB Adjustment
-33.2
Away QB Adjustment
+20.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-144.9
Model Spread
+6.0

Quarterbacks

J. Burrow headshot

J. Burrow

Proj. Value
+1.8
Team Elo Adj
+20.2
Value
Ptile
02/13
-3.0
31
09/11
-5.2
16
09/18
-2.2
35
09/25
1.7
65
09/29
3.1
76
10/09
-0.4
49
10/16
10.0
96
10/23
13.5
99
10/31
-1.8
39
11/06
3.9
80
K. Pickett headshot

K. Pickett

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-33.2
Value
Ptile
10/09
1.3
61
10/16
-2.5
32
10/23
-2.3
34
10/30
-5.7
14
11/13
-1.8
39

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Bengals logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
7
10
Yards / Game
11
11
Passing Yards / Game
1
8
Rushing Yards / Game
28
9

EPA

EPA / Play
5
24
EPA / Pass
4
29
EPA / Rush
18
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
18
Interceptions / Game
13
1
Fumbles / Game
4
31
Turnover EPA / Game
23
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
16
4th Down Efficiency
32
26
RZ Efficiency
7
16
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Steelers logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
26
5
Yards / Game
23
17
Passing Yards / Game
20
29
Rushing Yards / Game
16
5

EPA

EPA / Play
19
7
EPA / Pass
16
10
EPA / Rush
11
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
7
Interceptions / Game
17
15
Fumbles / Game
1
3
Turnover EPA / Game
26
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
19
4th Down Efficiency
3
12
RZ Efficiency
24
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
02/13
-3
L
W
U
09/11
-3
L
L
U
09/18
-3
L
L
U
09/25
15
W
W
U
09/29
12
W
W
U
10/09
-2
L
W
U
10/16
4
W
W
O
10/23
18
W
W
O
10/31
-19
L
L
P
11/06
21
W
W
O
PIT logo

Steelers

3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/16
-21
L
L
O
09/11
3
W
W
U
09/18
-3
L
P
U
09/22
-12
L
L
O
10/02
-4
L
L
O
10/09
-35
L
L
U
10/16
2
W
W
U
10/23
-6
L
W
U
10/30
-22
L
L
O
11/13
10
W
W
U