CINBengals
5-4
37
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
27°F
12 mph
30
PITSteelers
3-6
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
27°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
10
7
10
10
37
Steelers
3
17
3
7
30
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
408
351
Total Plays
65
68
Yards / Play
6.3
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.03
Passing Yards
346
249
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
25/42(60%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.33
-0.05
Rushing Yards
62
102
Rush Attempts
24
24
Yards / Rush
2.6
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
18
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
9
17
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.11
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-9
-16
Sack EPA
-3.21
-2.28
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
44
70
Penalty EPA
-5.57
-5.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model69.6%
Spread Pick
Bengals-3.5
Expected Value
+6.9%
Cover Probability
56.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-187
Home nfelo
1,430
Away nfelo
1,568
Home Field
+4.8
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
-17.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-31.0
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-53.4
Home QB Adjustment
-33.2
Away QB Adjustment
+20.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-143.8
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+20.2
K. Pickett
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-33.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
10
Yards / Game
11
11
Passing Yards / Game
1
8
Rushing Yards / Game
28
9
EPA
EPA / Play
5
24
EPA / Pass
4
29
EPA / Rush
18
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
18
Interceptions / Game
13
1
Fumbles / Game
4
31
Turnover EPA / Game
23
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
16
4th Down Efficiency
32
26
RZ Efficiency
7
16
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
5
Yards / Game
23
17
Passing Yards / Game
20
29
Rushing Yards / Game
16
5
EPA
EPA / Play
19
7
EPA / Pass
16
10
EPA / Rush
11
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
7
Interceptions / Game
17
15
Fumbles / Game
1
3
Turnover EPA / Game
26
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
19
4th Down Efficiency
3
12
RZ Efficiency
24
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Steelers
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U