CINBengals
10-4
17
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
37°F
5 mph
27
PITSteelers
10-5
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
37°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
3
0
7
17
Steelers
1
13
0
7
21
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
337
346
Total Plays
70
57
Yards / Play
4.8
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.11
Passing Yards
221
--
Comp/Att
27/38(71%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.18
Rushing Yards
116
29
Rush Attempts
29
18
Yards / Rush
4.0
1.6
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.83
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
43%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-12.81
-9.72
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-23
--
Sack EPA
-3.37
--
Penalties
5
1
Penalty Yards
45
--
Penalty EPA
-6.08
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+96
Home nfelo
1,567
Away nfelo
1,554
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+26.7
Home QB Adjustment
+21.5
Away QB Adjustment
-5.2
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.2
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+21.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
21
Yards / Game
18
17
Passing Yards / Game
31
22
Rushing Yards / Game
6
6
EPA
EPA / Play
15
27
EPA / Pass
23
25
EPA / Rush
3
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
17
Interceptions / Game
19
26
Fumbles / Game
18
14
Turnover EPA / Game
10
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
9
4th Down Efficiency
10
32
RZ Efficiency
10
19
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
13
Yards / Game
2
23
Passing Yards / Game
6
4
Rushing Yards / Game
17
20
EPA
EPA / Play
4
15
EPA / Pass
3
13
EPA / Rush
19
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
30
Interceptions / Game
7
6
Fumbles / Game
21
28
Turnover EPA / Game
21
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
7
4th Down Efficiency
10
22
RZ Efficiency
20
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U