CINBengals
6-9
13
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
42°F
9 mph
16
PITSteelers
8-6
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
42°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
4
0
3
7
Steelers
0
3
7
6
16
Spread
+13.5
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
196
343
Total Plays
46
66
Yards / Play
4.3
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.24
-0.13
Passing Yards
71
278
Comp/Att
12/24(50%)
31/45(69%)
Yards / Pass
3.0
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.51
-0.07
Rushing Yards
125
65
Rush Attempts
18
20
Yards / Rush
6.9
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
9
18
Passing 1st downs
4
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
25%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.05
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-24
-9
Sack EPA
-6.10
-2.45
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
85
70
Penalty EPA
-6.02
-8.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-16.5
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market86.2%
Model86.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+315
Home nfelo
1,604
Away nfelo
1,435
Home Field
+52.0
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+92.9
Home QB Adjustment
+11.3
Away QB Adjustment
-81.7
Market Regression
-56.5
Final Difference
318.3
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
J. Driskel
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-81.7
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
16
Yards / Game
26
6
Passing Yards / Game
22
27
Rushing Yards / Game
21
5
EPA
EPA / Play
18
20
EPA / Pass
18
18
EPA / Rush
19
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
29
Interceptions / Game
17
27
Fumbles / Game
1
19
Turnover EPA / Game
24
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
9
4th Down Efficiency
18
12
RZ Efficiency
3
16
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
30
Yards / Game
5
32
Passing Yards / Game
2
10
Rushing Yards / Game
31
29
EPA
EPA / Play
8
29
EPA / Pass
4
29
EPA / Rush
15
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
19
Interceptions / Game
26
20
Fumbles / Game
18
19
Turnover EPA / Game
7
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
32
4th Down Efficiency
6
26
RZ Efficiency
2
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-4-2
O/U
Steelers
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U