CINBengals
3-10
37
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
031
HOUTexans
4-10
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
3
14
13
37
Texans
3
7
14
7
31
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
540
488
Total Plays
71
51
Yards / Play
7.6
9.6
EPA / Play
+0.28
+0.20
Passing Yards
--
322
Comp/Att
29/38(76%)
24/33(73%)
Yards / Pass
--
9.8
EPA / Pass
+0.59
+0.11
Rushing Yards
169
166
Rush Attempts
33
17
Yards / Rush
5.1
9.8
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.53
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
23
Passing 1st downs
18
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
46%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.23
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-2
Sack EPA
--
-5.23
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
35
46
Penalty EPA
-5.09
-2.66
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
+8.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+177
Home nfelo
1,438
Away nfelo
1,383
Home Field
+5.1
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+116.3
Home QB Adjustment
+17.1
Away QB Adjustment
-99.2
Market Regression
+379.4
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
B. Allen
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-99.2
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+17.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
27
Yards / Game
30
30
Passing Yards / Game
27
20
Rushing Yards / Game
23
32
EPA
EPA / Play
25
31
EPA / Pass
23
31
EPA / Rush
30
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
2
Interceptions / Game
11
32
Fumbles / Game
27
18
Turnover EPA / Game
6
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
29
4th Down Efficiency
4
14
RZ Efficiency
29
24
Texans Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
21
Yards / Game
11
25
Passing Yards / Game
3
2
Rushing Yards / Game
31
29
EPA
EPA / Play
10
26
EPA / Pass
6
24
EPA / Rush
23
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
6
Interceptions / Game
2
20
Fumbles / Game
20
24
Turnover EPA / Game
27
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
20
4th Down Efficiency
18
24
RZ Efficiency
25
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Texans
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U