CINBengals
9-7
10
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
031
HOUTexans
10-6
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
3
0
0
10
Texans
7
4
7
7
25
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
300
340
Total Plays
65
57
Yards / Play
4.6
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.17
+0.18
Passing Yards
224
152
Comp/Att
27/42(64%)
11/20(55%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.27
+0.26
Rushing Yards
76
188
Rush Attempts
19
35
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
46%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-12.06
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-33
-7
Sack EPA
-5.29
-2.61
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
25
87
Penalty EPA
-3.24
-9.67
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model65.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+136
Home nfelo
1,603
Away nfelo
1,471
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-103.0
Home QB Adjustment
-97.2
Away QB Adjustment
+5.8
Market Regression
+12.4
Final Difference
111.6
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+5.8
T. Yates
Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-97.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
4
Yards / Game
22
2
Passing Yards / Game
19
11
Rushing Yards / Game
21
2
EPA
EPA / Play
19
2
EPA / Pass
18
1
EPA / Rush
21
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
24
Interceptions / Game
19
12
Fumbles / Game
4
22
Turnover EPA / Game
26
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
13
4th Down Efficiency
25
10
RZ Efficiency
25
11
Texans Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
12
Yards / Game
13
6
Passing Yards / Game
25
19
Rushing Yards / Game
2
12
EPA
EPA / Play
14
10
EPA / Pass
10
11
EPA / Rush
11
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
27
Interceptions / Game
4
29
Fumbles / Game
20
9
Turnover EPA / Game
20
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
14
4th Down Efficiency
30
8
RZ Efficiency
22
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
5-5
SU
3-5-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Texans
7-3
SU
6-2-2
ATS
4-6
O/U