CINBengals
6-4
20
TBD
Nissan Stadium
56°F
14 mph
16
TENTitans
7-3
TBD
Nissan Stadium
56°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
10
3
7
20
Titans
0
10
3
3
16
Spread
-2
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
374
344
Total Plays
66
56
Yards / Play
5.7
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.01
Passing Yards
266
281
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.15
+0.20
Rushing Yards
108
63
Rush Attempts
28
21
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
15
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
36%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-4
-10
Sack EPA
-1.44
-2.09
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
80
57
Penalty EPA
-11.51
-8.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model52.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+10
Home nfelo
1,538
Away nfelo
1,568
Home Field
+47.1
Base HFA
+40.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
-7.2
Net QB Adjustment
-6.5
Home QB Adjustment
+14.2
Away QB Adjustment
+20.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-16.4
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+20.7
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
12
Yards / Game
11
23
Passing Yards / Game
1
32
Rushing Yards / Game
28
1
EPA
EPA / Play
5
16
EPA / Pass
4
28
EPA / Rush
18
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
6
Interceptions / Game
13
13
Fumbles / Game
4
14
Turnover EPA / Game
23
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
3
4th Down Efficiency
32
32
RZ Efficiency
7
14
Titans Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
5
Yards / Game
30
17
Passing Yards / Game
24
29
Rushing Yards / Game
13
5
EPA
EPA / Play
25
7
EPA / Pass
23
10
EPA / Rush
26
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
7
Interceptions / Game
9
15
Fumbles / Game
11
3
Turnover EPA / Game
13
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
19
4th Down Efficiency
14
12
RZ Efficiency
6
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Titans
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U