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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ titans week 12, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
6-4
20
TBD
Nissan Stadium
56°F
14 mph
16
TENTitans
7-3
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
56°F
14 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
10
3
7
20
Titans
0
10
3
3
16

Spread

CIN logo
-2

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
374
344
Total Plays
66
56
Yards / Play
5.7
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.01
Passing Yards
266
281
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.15
+0.20
Rushing Yards
108
63
Rush Attempts
28
21
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
21
15
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
36%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-4
-10
Sack EPA
-1.44
-2.09
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
80
57
Penalty EPA
-11.51
-8.06

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market54.7%
Model52.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+8
Home nfelo
1,535
Away nfelo
1,568
Home Field
+47.0
Base HFA
+40.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.0
Time Adj
-7.2
Net QB Adjustment
-6.5
Home QB Adjustment
+14.2
Away QB Adjustment
+20.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-17.4
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

J. Burrow headshot

J. Burrow

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.7
Value
Ptile
09/11
-5.2
16
09/18
-2.2
35
09/25
1.7
65
09/29
3.1
76
10/09
-0.4
49
10/16
10.0
96
10/23
13.5
99
10/31
-1.8
39
11/06
3.9
80
11/20
3.4
78
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
Value
Ptile
01/09
6.6
90
01/22
-6.0
15
09/11
3.0
76
09/19
-8.0
6
09/25
1.0
59
10/02
-1.3
44
10/09
-6.5
11
10/23
-4.8
19
11/13
3.3
77
11/17
3.6
79

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Titans Defense
Bengals logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
7
12
Yards / Game
11
23
Passing Yards / Game
1
32
Rushing Yards / Game
28
1

EPA

EPA / Play
5
16
EPA / Pass
4
28
EPA / Rush
18
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
6
Interceptions / Game
13
13
Fumbles / Game
4
14
Turnover EPA / Game
23
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
3
4th Down Efficiency
32
32
RZ Efficiency
7
14
Titans Offense vs Bengals Defense
Titans logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
28
5
Yards / Game
30
17
Passing Yards / Game
24
29
Rushing Yards / Game
13
5

EPA

EPA / Play
25
7
EPA / Pass
23
10
EPA / Rush
26
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
7
Interceptions / Game
9
15
Fumbles / Game
11
3
Turnover EPA / Game
13
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
19
4th Down Efficiency
14
12
RZ Efficiency
6
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
-3
L
L
U
09/18
-3
L
L
U
09/25
15
W
W
U
09/29
12
W
W
U
10/09
-2
L
W
U
10/16
4
W
W
O
10/23
18
W
W
O
10/31
-19
L
L
P
11/06
21
W
W
O
11/20
7
W
W
O
TEN logo

Titans

7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
-1
L
L
U
09/19
-34
L
L
O
09/25
2
W
W
O
10/02
7
W
W
U
10/09
4
W
W
U
10/23
9
W
W
U
10/30
7
W
W
U
11/06
-3
L
W
U
11/13
7
W
W
U
11/17
10
W
W
O