CINBengals
5-8
37
TBD
Nissan Stadium
52°F
12 mph
27
TENTitans
3-10
TBD
Nissan Stadium
52°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
17
1
6
31
Titans
14
0
0
13
27
Spread
-5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
370
374
Total Plays
64
65
Yards / Play
5.8
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.04
Passing Yards
269
291
Comp/Att
26/37(70%)
29/38(76%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.19
-0.07
Rushing Yards
101
83
Rush Attempts
26
26
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
25
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
77%
63%
3rd Down Conversions
10
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
8
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
6
Interceptions
2
4
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-12.58
-27.74
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-2
-7
Sack EPA
-6.68
-1.46
Penalties
14
12
Penalty Yards
113
110
Penalty EPA
-9.91
-10.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market67.5%
Model68.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-176
Home nfelo
1,396
Away nfelo
1,562
Home Field
+46.5
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
-7.1
Net QB Adjustment
-56.6
Home QB Adjustment
-24.8
Away QB Adjustment
+31.8
Market Regression
+4.4
Final Difference
-137.1
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+31.8
W. Levis
Proj. Value
-4.2
Team Elo Adj
-24.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
30
Yards / Game
9
3
Passing Yards / Game
1
5
Rushing Yards / Game
30
25
EPA
EPA / Play
6
21
EPA / Pass
5
18
EPA / Rush
14
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
6
Interceptions / Game
9
18
Fumbles / Game
27
19
Turnover EPA / Game
18
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
22
4th Down Efficiency
21
31
RZ Efficiency
5
24
Titans Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
25
Yards / Game
26
25
Passing Yards / Game
15
13
Rushing Yards / Game
18
19
EPA
EPA / Play
30
28
EPA / Pass
30
17
EPA / Rush
29
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
10
Interceptions / Game
31
9
Fumbles / Game
27
8
Turnover EPA / Game
2
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
23
4th Down Efficiency
30
19
RZ Efficiency
24
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Titans
3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U