CINBengals
11-7
19
TBD
Nissan Stadium
35°F
016
TENTitans
12-5
TBD
Nissan Stadium
35°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
6
3
7
3
19
Titans
0
6
10
0
16
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
345
353
Total Plays
64
53
Yards / Play
5.4
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.16
Passing Yards
280
213
Comp/Att
28/37(76%)
15/24(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
8.9
EPA / Pass
-0.14
-0.19
Rushing Yards
65
140
Rush Attempts
18
28
Yards / Rush
3.6
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
16
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
47%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
7
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
8
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.39
-12.08
Sacks
9
1
Sack Yards
-68
-7
Sack EPA
-14.15
-2.11
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
46
15
Penalty EPA
+3.43
-0.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model59.0%
Spread Pick
Bengals+4.0
Expected Value
+10.3%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+18
Home nfelo
1,566
Away nfelo
1,557
Home Field
+53.1
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+10.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.5
Net QB Adjustment
-45.7
Home QB Adjustment
-9.4
Away QB Adjustment
+36.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
63.5
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+36.3
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-9.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
6
Yards / Game
14
11
Passing Yards / Game
3
30
Rushing Yards / Game
24
1
EPA
EPA / Play
12
8
EPA / Pass
9
10
EPA / Rush
22
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
8
Interceptions / Game
11
11
Fumbles / Game
2
28
Turnover EPA / Game
17
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
6
4th Down Efficiency
5
21
RZ Efficiency
23
4
Titans Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
13
Yards / Game
17
19
Passing Yards / Game
20
28
Rushing Yards / Game
5
7
EPA
EPA / Play
17
10
EPA / Pass
16
14
EPA / Rush
10
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
1
Interceptions / Game
25
8
Fumbles / Game
27
8
Turnover EPA / Game
10
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
20
4th Down Efficiency
8
2
RZ Efficiency
9
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Titans
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U