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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ vikings week 3, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
2-0
10
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0
48
MINVikings
1-1
MIN logo
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
3
0
7
10
Vikings
8
14
14
0
36

Spread

MIN logo
-3

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
171
352
Total Plays
52
58
Yards / Play
3.3
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.74
+0.06
Passing Yards
118
183
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
16/24(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
7.6
EPA / Pass
-1.25
+0.23
Rushing Yards
53
169
Rush Attempts
21
31
Yards / Rush
2.5
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.34
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
12
22
Passing 1st downs
6
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
27%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
5
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-31.44
--
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-22
-19
Sack EPA
-7.41
-4.70
Penalties
4
13
Penalty Yards
45
105
Penalty EPA
-3.15
-13.74

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+79
Home nfelo
1,525
Away nfelo
1,532
Home Field
+31.7
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-6.9
Net QB Adjustment
+54.4
Home QB Adjustment
-12.8
Away QB Adjustment
-67.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Browning headshot

J. Browning

Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-67.1
Value
Ptile
11/26
-1.9
36
12/04
9.8
97
12/10
6.4
88
12/16
0.1
49
12/23
-2.8
30
12/31
-1.3
40
01/07
3.8
74
C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-12.8
Value
Ptile
01/09
-9.8
4
09/11
3.3
77
09/18
1.4
62
09/25
-9.6
3
10/02
-4.6
20
10/09
4.3
82
10/13
-7.7
7
01/01
-8.4
5
01/07
3.6
74
01/05
-7.7
6

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Vikings Defense
Bengals logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
12
10
Yards / Game
18
5
Passing Yards / Game
2
9
Rushing Yards / Game
31
22

EPA

EPA / Play
12
4
EPA / Pass
21
3
EPA / Rush
10
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
3
Interceptions / Game
28
24
Fumbles / Game
6
1
Turnover EPA / Game
2
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
5
4th Down Efficiency
3
25
RZ Efficiency
4
1
Vikings Offense vs Bengals Defense
Vikings logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
26
31
Yards / Game
29
32
Passing Yards / Game
30
13
Rushing Yards / Game
25
32

EPA

EPA / Play
28
29
EPA / Pass
31
29
EPA / Rush
17
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
19
Interceptions / Game
32
11
Fumbles / Game
15
16
Turnover EPA / Game
3
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
28
4th Down Efficiency
11
24
RZ Efficiency
13
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
-1
L
W
O
11/17
-7
L
L
O
12/01
-6
L
L
O
12/09
7
W
W
U
12/15
10
W
W
O
12/22
18
W
W
U
12/28
6
W
W
O
01/04
2
W
L
U
09/07
1
W
L
U
09/14
4
W
W
O
MIN logo

Vikings

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
3
W
P
O
12/01
1
W
L
U
12/08
21
W
W
O
12/16
18
W
W
U
12/22
3
W
W
O
12/29
2
W
W
O
01/05
-22
L
L
U
01/13
-18
L
L
U
09/08
3
W
W
O
09/14
-16
L
L
U