CINBengals
2-0
10
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
048
MINVikings
1-1
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
3
0
7
10
Vikings
8
14
14
0
36
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
171
352
Total Plays
52
58
Yards / Play
3.3
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.74
+0.06
Passing Yards
118
183
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
16/24(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
7.6
EPA / Pass
-1.25
+0.23
Rushing Yards
53
169
Rush Attempts
21
31
Yards / Rush
2.5
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.34
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
22
Passing 1st downs
6
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
27%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-31.44
--
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-22
-19
Sack EPA
-7.41
-4.70
Penalties
4
13
Penalty Yards
45
105
Penalty EPA
-3.15
-13.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+80
Home nfelo
1,527
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+31.5
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-6.9
Net QB Adjustment
+54.4
Home QB Adjustment
-12.8
Away QB Adjustment
-67.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Browning
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-67.1
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-12.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
18
Yards / Game
22
12
Passing Yards / Game
6
21
Rushing Yards / Game
32
22
EPA
EPA / Play
16
6
EPA / Pass
22
9
EPA / Rush
6
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
2
Interceptions / Game
29
28
Fumbles / Game
14
5
Turnover EPA / Game
4
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
8
4th Down Efficiency
1
28
RZ Efficiency
8
5
Vikings Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
32
Yards / Game
24
32
Passing Yards / Game
13
5
Rushing Yards / Game
24
32
EPA
EPA / Play
28
32
EPA / Pass
29
32
EPA / Rush
25
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
14
Interceptions / Game
30
7
Fumbles / Game
14
29
Turnover EPA / Game
3
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
31
4th Down Efficiency
18
24
RZ Efficiency
20
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Vikings
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U