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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ vikings week 14, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
9-3
10
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0
30
MINVikings
10-2
MIN logo
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
7
0
3
10
Vikings
0
16
7
7
30

Spread

MIN logo
-6.5

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
210
322
Total Plays
53
69
Yards / Play
4.0
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.24
+0.11
Passing Yards
91
180
Comp/Att
16/28(57%)
17/30(57%)
Yards / Pass
3.3
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.10
Rushing Yards
119
142
Rush Attempts
24
37
Yards / Rush
5.0
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
13
21
Passing 1st downs
7
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
43%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-2.61
-3.82
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-12
-12
Sack EPA
-1.79
-3.24
Penalties
11
9
Penalty Yards
85
69
Penalty EPA
-9.78
-5.75

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model72.3%
Spread Pick
MIN logo
Vikings-6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+211
Home nfelo
1,615
Away nfelo
1,497
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+41.3
Home QB Adjustment
+39.6
Away QB Adjustment
-1.8
Market Regression
-18.5
Final Difference
166.8
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.8
Value
Ptile
09/27
-0.8
45
10/04
-0.3
47
10/11
1.9
63
10/18
1.2
57
10/25
11.6
98
11/08
2.5
66
11/15
-2.0
38
11/22
0.8
55
11/29
-4.3
23
12/06
-5.9
15
B. Favre headshot

B. Favre

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+39.6
Value
Ptile
09/27
0.6
54
10/05
9.8
96
10/11
0.3
52
10/18
6.1
86
10/25
0.1
50
11/01
8.6
94
11/15
4.3
78
11/22
7.4
90
11/29
10.2
97
12/06
0.3
53

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Vikings Defense
Bengals logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
22
8
Yards / Game
24
4
Passing Yards / Game
21
24
Rushing Yards / Game
7
1

EPA

EPA / Play
19
3
EPA / Pass
16
12
EPA / Rush
12
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
19
Interceptions / Game
8
27
Fumbles / Game
21
5
Turnover EPA / Game
17
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
2
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
21
11
Vikings Offense vs Bengals Defense
Vikings logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
3
5
Yards / Game
6
5
Passing Yards / Game
15
12
Rushing Yards / Game
11
8

EPA

EPA / Play
5
7
EPA / Pass
3
10
EPA / Rush
32
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
22
Interceptions / Game
1
11
Fumbles / Game
24
32
Turnover EPA / Game
25
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
13
4th Down Efficiency
8
12
RZ Efficiency
3
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
3
W
W
O
10/04
3
W
L
O
10/11
3
W
W
U
10/18
-11
L
L
U
10/25
35
W
W
O
11/08
10
W
W
U
11/15
6
W
W
U
11/22
-3
L
L
O
11/29
9
W
L
U
12/06
10
W
L
U
MIN logo

Vikings

8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
3
W
L
O
10/05
7
W
W
O
10/11
28
W
W
O
10/18
2
W
L
O
10/25
-10
L
L
U
11/01
12
W
W
O
11/15
17
W
P
U
11/22
26
W
W
U
11/29
26
W
W
U
12/06
-13
L
L
U