CINBengals
9-3
10
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
030
MINVikings
10-2
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
7
0
3
10
Vikings
0
16
7
7
30
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
210
322
Total Plays
53
69
Yards / Play
4.0
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.24
+0.11
Passing Yards
91
180
Comp/Att
16/28(57%)
17/30(57%)
Yards / Pass
3.3
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.10
Rushing Yards
119
142
Rush Attempts
24
37
Yards / Rush
5.0
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
21
Passing 1st downs
7
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
43%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-2.61
-3.82
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-12
-12
Sack EPA
-1.79
-3.24
Penalties
11
9
Penalty Yards
85
69
Penalty EPA
-9.78
-5.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model72.4%
Spread Pick
Vikings-6.5
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+212
Home nfelo
1,617
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+41.3
Home QB Adjustment
+39.6
Away QB Adjustment
-1.8
Market Regression
-18.2
Final Difference
167.2
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.8
B. Favre
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+39.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
8
Yards / Game
24
4
Passing Yards / Game
21
24
Rushing Yards / Game
7
1
EPA
EPA / Play
19
3
EPA / Pass
16
12
EPA / Rush
12
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
19
Interceptions / Game
8
27
Fumbles / Game
21
5
Turnover EPA / Game
17
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
2
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
21
11
Vikings Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
5
Yards / Game
6
5
Passing Yards / Game
15
12
Rushing Yards / Game
11
8
EPA
EPA / Play
5
7
EPA / Pass
3
10
EPA / Rush
32
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
22
Interceptions / Game
1
11
Fumbles / Game
24
32
Turnover EPA / Game
25
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
13
4th Down Efficiency
8
12
RZ Efficiency
3
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Vikings
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U