BUFBills
2-2
3
TBD
Candlestick Park
62°F
8 mph
45
SF49ers
3-1
TBD
Candlestick Park
62°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
3
0
0
3
49ers
3
14
7
21
45
Spread
-10
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
204
621
Total Plays
46
63
Yards / Play
4.4
9.9
EPA / Play
-0.20
+0.54
Passing Yards
115
--
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
19/25(76%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.44
+0.79
Rushing Yards
89
311
Rush Attempts
19
38
Yards / Rush
4.7
8.2
EPA / Rush
-0.08
+0.47
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
29
Passing 1st downs
6
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
18
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
20%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
0%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.33
-3.36
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-11
--
Sack EPA
-1.56
--
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-1.75
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+252
Home nfelo
1,637
Away nfelo
1,483
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-8.0
Home QB Adjustment
-0.0
Away QB Adjustment
+8.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
3
Yards / Game
19
4
Passing Yards / Game
28
14
Rushing Yards / Game
6
3
EPA
EPA / Play
20
8
EPA / Pass
21
10
EPA / Rush
10
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
12
Interceptions / Game
22
19
Fumbles / Game
31
14
Turnover EPA / Game
5
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
6
4th Down Efficiency
7
19
RZ Efficiency
22
27
49ers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
26
Yards / Game
5
21
Passing Yards / Game
21
7
Rushing Yards / Game
2
31
EPA
EPA / Play
5
28
EPA / Pass
7
15
EPA / Rush
1
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
23
Interceptions / Game
2
20
Fumbles / Game
15
20
Turnover EPA / Game
29
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
32
4th Down Efficiency
8
18
RZ Efficiency
16
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
49ers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U