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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ 49ers week 5, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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BUF logo
BUFBills
2-2
3
TBD
Candlestick Park
62°F
8 mph
45
SF49ers
3-1
SF logo
TBD
Candlestick Park
62°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
3
0
0
3
49ers
3
14
7
21
45

Spread

SF logo
-10

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
204
621
Total Plays
46
63
Yards / Play
4.4
9.9
EPA / Play
-0.20
+0.54
Passing Yards
115
--
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
19/25(76%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.44
+0.79
Rushing Yards
89
311
Rush Attempts
19
38
Yards / Rush
4.7
8.2
EPA / Rush
-0.08
+0.47
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
10
29
Passing 1st downs
6
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
18
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
20%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
0%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Bills logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.33
-3.36
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-11
--
Sack EPA
-1.56
--
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-1.75
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+252
Home nfelo
1,637
Away nfelo
1,483
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-8.0
Home QB Adjustment
-0.0
Away QB Adjustment
+8.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
Value
Ptile
11/27
7.3
92
12/04
2.5
69
12/11
-7.8
7
12/18
-0.5
48
12/24
-0.9
46
01/01
-1.4
41
09/09
-0.8
43
09/16
3.7
73
09/23
4.4
78
09/30
-1.4
40
A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.0
Value
Ptile
12/11
-8.3
5
12/19
2.8
71
12/24
-1.5
39
01/01
1.9
66
01/14
5.7
85
01/22
0.1
53
09/09
0.9
56
09/16
0.5
53
09/23
-1.5
39
09/30
-2.9
31

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs 49ers Defense
Bills logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
21
3
Yards / Game
19
4
Passing Yards / Game
28
14
Rushing Yards / Game
6
3

EPA

EPA / Play
20
8
EPA / Pass
21
10
EPA / Rush
10
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
12
Interceptions / Game
22
19
Fumbles / Game
31
14
Turnover EPA / Game
5
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
6
4th Down Efficiency
7
19
RZ Efficiency
22
27
49ers Offense vs Bills Defense
49ers logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
7
26
Yards / Game
5
21
Passing Yards / Game
21
7
Rushing Yards / Game
2
31

EPA

EPA / Play
5
28
EPA / Pass
7
15
EPA / Rush
1
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
23
Interceptions / Game
2
20
Fumbles / Game
15
20
Turnover EPA / Game
29
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
32
4th Down Efficiency
8
18
RZ Efficiency
16
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
-4
L
W
O
12/04
-6
L
L
U
12/11
-27
L
L
U
12/18
-7
L
L
O
12/24
26
W
W
O
01/01
-28
L
L
O
09/09
-20
L
L
O
09/16
18
W
W
O
09/23
10
W
W
U
09/30
-24
L
L
O
SF logo

49ers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
-2
L
L
O
12/19
17
W
W
U
12/24
2
W
W
U
01/01
7
W
L
O
01/14
4
W
W
O
01/22
-3
L
L
U
09/09
8
W
W
O
09/16
8
W
W
P
09/23
-11
L
L
U
09/30
34
W
W
U