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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ 49ers week 13, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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BUF logo
BUFBills
8-3
34
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
24
SF49ers
5-6
SF logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
17
10
7
34
49ers
7
0
10
7
24

Spread

BUF logo
+1.5

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
449
402
Total Plays
68
60
Yards / Play
6.6
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.08
Passing Yards
368
--
Comp/Att
32/40(80%)
26/39(67%)
Yards / Pass
9.2
--
EPA / Pass
+0.56
+0.28
Rushing Yards
81
86
Rush Attempts
27
21
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.40
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
31
24
Passing 1st downs
22
18
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
44%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
11
Red Zone %
40%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Bills logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.49
-10.00
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-1.29
--
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
50
43
Penalty EPA
-5.75
-6.90

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+1.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model46.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-57
Home nfelo
1,525
Away nfelo
1,541
Home Field
+5.5
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+3.4
Net QB Adjustment
-46.6
Home QB Adjustment
-30.5
Away QB Adjustment
+16.1
Market Regression
+24.5
Final Difference
-21.7
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.1
Value
Ptile
09/20
10.7
97
09/27
6.3
86
10/04
5.4
79
10/13
-0.4
43
10/19
-0.7
41
10/25
4.1
74
11/01
-1.6
32
11/08
6.2
85
11/15
2.1
59
11/29
-1.5
34
N. Mullens headshot

N. Mullens

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-30.5
Value
Ptile
12/02
2.8
69
12/09
-0.8
41
12/16
-0.1
45
12/23
-1.4
36
12/30
-1.7
35
09/27
2.4
62
10/04
-5.6
13
11/05
0.1
47
11/15
-3.6
21
11/29
-1.2
36

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs 49ers Defense
Bills logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
3
17
Yards / Game
5
4
Passing Yards / Game
6
12
Rushing Yards / Game
24
8

EPA

EPA / Play
4
11
EPA / Pass
3
8
EPA / Rush
16
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
12
Interceptions / Game
9
16
Fumbles / Game
22
6
Turnover EPA / Game
24
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
3
4th Down Efficiency
1
25
RZ Efficiency
12
9
49ers Offense vs Bills Defense
49ers logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
21
14
Yards / Game
14
18
Passing Yards / Game
13
13
Rushing Yards / Game
15
20

EPA

EPA / Play
21
16
EPA / Pass
16
13
EPA / Rush
22
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
21
Interceptions / Game
30
12
Fumbles / Game
27
5
Turnover EPA / Game
2
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
19
4th Down Efficiency
28
16
RZ Efficiency
7
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
3
W
L
O
09/27
3
W
W
O
10/04
7
W
W
P
10/13
-26
L
L
O
10/19
-9
L
L
U
10/25
8
W
L
U
11/01
3
W
L
O
11/08
10
W
W
O
11/15
-2
L
W
O
11/29
10
W
W
U
SF logo

49ers

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
18
W
W
O
09/27
27
W
W
O
10/04
-5
L
L
U
10/11
-26
L
L
O
10/18
8
W
W
U
10/25
27
W
W
U
11/01
-10
L
L
O
11/05
-17
L
L
O
11/15
-14
L
L
U
11/29
3
W
W
U