BUFBills
8-3
34
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
024
SF49ers
5-6
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
17
10
7
34
49ers
7
0
10
7
24
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
449
402
Total Plays
68
60
Yards / Play
6.6
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.08
Passing Yards
368
--
Comp/Att
32/40(80%)
26/39(67%)
Yards / Pass
9.2
--
EPA / Pass
+0.56
+0.28
Rushing Yards
81
86
Rush Attempts
27
21
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.40
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
31
24
Passing 1st downs
22
18
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
44%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
11
Red Zone %
40%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.49
-10.00
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-1.29
--
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
50
43
Penalty EPA
-5.75
-6.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model46.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-57
Home nfelo
1,526
Away nfelo
1,542
Home Field
+5.5
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+3.4
Net QB Adjustment
-46.6
Home QB Adjustment
-30.5
Away QB Adjustment
+16.1
Market Regression
+24.2
Final Difference
-21.9
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.1
N. Mullens
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-30.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
17
Yards / Game
5
4
Passing Yards / Game
6
12
Rushing Yards / Game
24
8
EPA
EPA / Play
4
11
EPA / Pass
3
8
EPA / Rush
16
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
12
Interceptions / Game
9
16
Fumbles / Game
22
6
Turnover EPA / Game
24
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
3
4th Down Efficiency
1
25
RZ Efficiency
12
9
49ers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
14
Yards / Game
14
18
Passing Yards / Game
13
13
Rushing Yards / Game
15
20
EPA
EPA / Play
21
16
EPA / Pass
16
13
EPA / Rush
22
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
21
Interceptions / Game
30
12
Fumbles / Game
27
5
Turnover EPA / Game
2
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
19
4th Down Efficiency
28
16
RZ Efficiency
7
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
49ers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U