BUFBills
11-3
35
TBD
Soldier Field
7°F
17 mph
13
CHIBears
3-11
TBD
Soldier Field
7°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
6
0
15
14
35
Bears
7
3
0
3
13
Spread
-8
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
428
209
Total Plays
59
59
Yards / Play
7.3
3.5
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.36
Passing Yards
174
129
Comp/Att
15/27(56%)
18/28(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
4.6
EPA / Pass
-0.10
-0.32
Rushing Yards
254
80
Rush Attempts
31
29
Yards / Rush
8.2
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.50
-0.55
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
11
Passing 1st downs
9
6
Rushing 1st downs
11
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
55%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
75%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-13.92
-5.34
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
--
-15
Sack EPA
-0.94
-1.61
Penalties
9
2
Penalty Yards
72
--
Penalty EPA
-6.86
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market76.2%
Model76.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-191
Home nfelo
1,376
Away nfelo
1,649
Home Field
+48.3
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.4
Time Adj
-7.4
Net QB Adjustment
+33.2
Home QB Adjustment
+35.3
Away QB Adjustment
+2.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-202.2
Model Spread
+8.0
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
+35.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
32
Yards / Game
2
29
Passing Yards / Game
2
6
Rushing Yards / Game
8
31
EPA
EPA / Play
3
32
EPA / Pass
5
32
EPA / Rush
7
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
4
Interceptions / Game
26
13
Fumbles / Game
31
14
Turnover EPA / Game
2
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
32
4th Down Efficiency
16
4
RZ Efficiency
9
27
Bears Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
4
Yards / Game
28
7
Passing Yards / Game
32
25
Rushing Yards / Game
1
6
EPA
EPA / Play
21
6
EPA / Pass
32
12
EPA / Rush
2
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
17
Interceptions / Game
22
4
Fumbles / Game
20
13
Turnover EPA / Game
25
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
6
4th Down Efficiency
31
22
RZ Efficiency
13
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Bears
1-9
SU
4-5-1
ATS
8-2
O/U