BUFBills
1-1
24
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
53°F
9 mph
14
CLEBrowns
0-2
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
53°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
14
0
3
7
24
Browns
0
7
7
0
14
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
344
240
Total Plays
70
60
Yards / Play
4.9
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.23
Passing Yards
206
207
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
27/43(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.23
-0.24
Rushing Yards
138
33
Rush Attempts
34
13
Yards / Rush
4.1
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
29%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.54
-9.46
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-2
-30
Sack EPA
-4.54
-5.49
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
75
57
Penalty EPA
-6.91
-6.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model55.4%
Spread Pick
Browns+3.0
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-3
Home nfelo
1,384
Away nfelo
1,467
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.7
Home QB Adjustment
-0.1
Away QB Adjustment
+4.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-37.3
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
B. Weeden
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-0.1
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
19
Yards / Game
19
22
Passing Yards / Game
28
20
Rushing Yards / Game
6
18
EPA
EPA / Play
20
12
EPA / Pass
21
18
EPA / Rush
10
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
15
Interceptions / Game
22
11
Fumbles / Game
31
5
Turnover EPA / Game
5
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
14
4th Down Efficiency
7
27
RZ Efficiency
22
23
Browns Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
26
Yards / Game
25
21
Passing Yards / Game
24
7
Rushing Yards / Game
24
31
EPA
EPA / Play
26
28
EPA / Pass
27
15
EPA / Rush
13
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
23
Interceptions / Game
27
20
Fumbles / Game
3
20
Turnover EPA / Game
17
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
32
4th Down Efficiency
21
18
RZ Efficiency
30
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Browns
1-9
SU
7-2-1
ATS
2-7-1
O/U