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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ browns week 3, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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BUF logo
BUFBills
1-1
24
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
53°F
9 mph
14
CLEBrowns
0-2
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
53°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
14
0
3
7
24
Browns
0
7
7
0
14

Spread

BUF logo
-3

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
344
240
Total Plays
70
60
Yards / Play
4.9
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.23
Passing Yards
206
207
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
27/43(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.23
-0.24
Rushing Yards
138
33
Rush Attempts
34
13
Yards / Rush
4.1
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
29%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.54
-9.46
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-2
-30
Sack EPA
-4.54
-5.49
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
75
57
Penalty EPA
-6.91
-6.07

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model55.3%
Spread Pick
CLE logo
Browns+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-2
Home nfelo
1,386
Away nfelo
1,468
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.7
Home QB Adjustment
-0.1
Away QB Adjustment
+4.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-36.7
Model Spread
+2.0

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
Value
Ptile
11/13
-4.4
22
11/20
-7.1
9
11/27
7.3
92
12/04
2.5
69
12/11
-7.8
7
12/18
-0.5
48
12/24
-0.9
46
01/01
-1.4
41
09/09
-0.8
43
09/16
3.7
73
B. Weeden headshot

B. Weeden

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-0.1
Value
Ptile
09/09
-13.8
0
09/16
6.3
88

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Browns Defense
Bills logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
21
19
Yards / Game
19
22
Passing Yards / Game
28
20
Rushing Yards / Game
6
18

EPA

EPA / Play
20
12
EPA / Pass
21
18
EPA / Rush
10
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
15
Interceptions / Game
22
11
Fumbles / Game
31
5
Turnover EPA / Game
5
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
14
4th Down Efficiency
7
27
RZ Efficiency
22
23
Browns Offense vs Bills Defense
Browns logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
24
26
Yards / Game
25
21
Passing Yards / Game
24
7
Rushing Yards / Game
24
31

EPA

EPA / Play
26
28
EPA / Pass
27
15
EPA / Rush
13
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
23
Interceptions / Game
27
20
Fumbles / Game
3
20
Turnover EPA / Game
17
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
32
4th Down Efficiency
21
18
RZ Efficiency
30
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
-37
L
L
O
11/20
-27
L
L
U
11/27
-4
L
W
O
12/04
-6
L
L
U
12/11
-27
L
L
U
12/18
-7
L
L
O
12/24
26
W
W
O
01/01
-28
L
L
O
09/09
-20
L
L
O
09/16
18
W
W
O
CLE logo

Browns

1-9
SU
7-2-1
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
-1
L
L
U
11/20
4
W
W
U
11/27
-3
L
W
O
12/04
-14
L
L
U
12/08
-11
L
W
U
12/18
-3
L
W
P
12/24
-6
L
W
U
01/01
-4
L
W
U
09/09
-1
L
W
U
09/16
-7
L
P
O