BUFBills
2-2
24
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
75°F
6 mph
37
CLEBrowns
2-2
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
75°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
10
0
14
0
24
Browns
0
11
7
7
25
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
343
290
Total Plays
75
65
Yards / Play
4.6
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.01
Passing Yards
188
199
Comp/Att
19/40(48%)
15/28(54%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.31
+0.03
Rushing Yards
155
91
Rush Attempts
31
32
Yards / Rush
5.0
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
31%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
16
17
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.17
--
Sacks
4
5
Sack Yards
-21
-23
Sack EPA
-4.62
-7.20
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
56
66
Penalty EPA
-1.89
-8.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+80
Home nfelo
1,467
Away nfelo
1,435
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-37.1
Home QB Adjustment
-47.6
Away QB Adjustment
-10.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
E. Manuel
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-10.5
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-47.6
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
23
Yards / Game
19
9
Passing Yards / Game
29
9
Rushing Yards / Game
2
18
EPA
EPA / Play
26
17
EPA / Pass
31
12
EPA / Rush
9
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
3
Interceptions / Game
15
19
Fumbles / Game
22
24
Turnover EPA / Game
12
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
31
4th Down Efficiency
30
16
RZ Efficiency
29
31
Browns Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
20
Yards / Game
18
10
Passing Yards / Game
8
7
Rushing Yards / Game
28
27
EPA
EPA / Play
25
8
EPA / Pass
25
2
EPA / Rush
14
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
4
Interceptions / Game
24
2
Fumbles / Game
9
24
Turnover EPA / Game
14
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
14
4th Down Efficiency
17
11
RZ Efficiency
22
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Browns
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U