BUFBills
7-2
30
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
032
ARICardinals
5-3
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
9
7
7
30
Cardinals
3
6
17
6
32
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
55.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
369
453
Total Plays
68
71
Yards / Play
5.4
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.05
Passing Yards
--
236
Comp/Att
33/50(66%)
22/32(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.03
+0.09
Rushing Yards
73
217
Rush Attempts
18
36
Yards / Rush
4.1
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
26
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
14
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
46%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.67
-9.09
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-9
Sack EPA
--
-3.84
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
69
40
Penalty EPA
-6.21
-5.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model55.0%
Spread Pick
Bills+3.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+2
Home nfelo
1,499
Away nfelo
1,539
Home Field
+10.7
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
+32.0
Home QB Adjustment
+54.8
Away QB Adjustment
+22.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
35.2
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.4
Team Elo Adj
+22.8
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+54.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
12
Yards / Game
5
13
Passing Yards / Game
6
11
Rushing Yards / Game
24
21
EPA
EPA / Play
4
9
EPA / Pass
3
10
EPA / Rush
16
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
22
Interceptions / Game
9
20
Fumbles / Game
22
18
Turnover EPA / Game
24
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
10
4th Down Efficiency
1
26
RZ Efficiency
12
4
Cardinals Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
14
Yards / Game
6
18
Passing Yards / Game
10
13
Rushing Yards / Game
6
20
EPA
EPA / Play
15
16
EPA / Pass
22
13
EPA / Rush
3
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
21
Interceptions / Game
17
12
Fumbles / Game
23
5
Turnover EPA / Game
8
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
19
4th Down Efficiency
5
16
RZ Efficiency
9
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Cardinals
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U