BUFBills
8-6
24
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
022
LACChargers
5-9
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
14
7
3
24
Chargers
3
7
3
9
22
Spread
+13
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
335
270
Total Plays
52
65
Yards / Play
6.4
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.00
+0.01
Passing Yards
230
172
Comp/Att
15/21(71%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
11.0
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.48
-0.03
Rushing Yards
105
98
Rush Attempts
30
27
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
50%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.56
+6.70
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-7
-40
Sack EPA
-1.42
-7.30
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
64
--
Penalty EPA
-6.90
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-13.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market85.2%
Model82.1%
Spread Pick
Chargers+13.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-229
Home nfelo
1,482
Away nfelo
1,685
Home Field
+69.8
Base HFA
+45.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+24.4
Net QB Adjustment
-95.2
Home QB Adjustment
-88.6
Away QB Adjustment
+6.6
Market Regression
-33.4
Final Difference
-264.6
Model Spread
+11.0
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+6.6
E. Stick
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-88.6
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
23
Yards / Game
5
28
Passing Yards / Game
19
21
Rushing Yards / Game
5
16
EPA
EPA / Play
3
20
EPA / Pass
6
24
EPA / Rush
1
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
12
Interceptions / Game
26
25
Fumbles / Game
15
8
Turnover EPA / Game
22
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
15
4th Down Efficiency
7
28
RZ Efficiency
4
12
Chargers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
3
Yards / Game
18
8
Passing Yards / Game
17
13
Rushing Yards / Game
24
15
EPA
EPA / Play
22
11
EPA / Pass
18
6
EPA / Rush
31
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
32
Interceptions / Game
3
5
Fumbles / Game
27
3
Turnover EPA / Game
16
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
18
4th Down Efficiency
23
15
RZ Efficiency
13
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
2-8
O/U
Chargers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
2-8
O/U