BUFBills
4-1
24
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
020
KCChiefs
4-1
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
10
7
7
24
Chiefs
0
10
7
3
20
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
54
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
443
387
Total Plays
72
61
Yards / Play
6.2
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.05
Passing Yards
318
319
Comp/Att
27/40(68%)
25/40(63%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.11
Rushing Yards
125
68
Rush Attempts
31
18
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
23
Passing 1st downs
18
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
36%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.99
-8.59
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-11
-19
Sack EPA
-1.77
-3.85
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
35
58
Penalty EPA
-4.20
-3.72
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-26
Home nfelo
1,627
Away nfelo
1,695
Home Field
+59.5
Base HFA
+39.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.6
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-17.3
Home QB Adjustment
+8.6
Away QB Adjustment
+25.9
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.3
Team Elo Adj
+25.9
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
+8.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
18
Yards / Game
2
14
Passing Yards / Game
2
28
Rushing Yards / Game
8
8
EPA
EPA / Play
3
27
EPA / Pass
5
15
EPA / Rush
7
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
30
Interceptions / Game
26
21
Fumbles / Game
31
2
Turnover EPA / Game
2
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
22
4th Down Efficiency
16
24
RZ Efficiency
9
28
Chiefs Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
4
Yards / Game
1
7
Passing Yards / Game
12
25
Rushing Yards / Game
20
6
EPA
EPA / Play
1
6
EPA / Pass
1
12
EPA / Rush
6
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
17
Interceptions / Game
7
4
Fumbles / Game
6
13
Turnover EPA / Game
27
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
6
4th Down Efficiency
2
22
RZ Efficiency
2
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
8-2
SU
6-2-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chiefs
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U