BUFBills
5-4
16
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
48°F
13 mph
17
KCChiefs
4-5
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
48°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
13
3
0
16
Chiefs
7
3
0
7
17
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
344
320
Total Plays
64
58
Yards / Play
5.4
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.12
Passing Yards
211
192
Comp/Att
24/36(67%)
12/20(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
9.6
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.27
Rushing Yards
133
128
Rush Attempts
26
37
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
54%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
25%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.27
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-14
-5
Sack EPA
-2.53
-2.01
Penalties
13
5
Penalty Yards
139
39
Penalty EPA
-14.39
-1.18
Preview data is limited for games before 2009
Model projections and totals are not available before 2009, meaning preview data is limited to spread and margin trends, and team stats.
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
MarketN/A
ModelN/A
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
Home nfelo
Away nfelo
Home Field
Base HFA
Divisional Adj
Home Bye Adj
Away Bye Adj
Surface Adj
Time Adj
Net QB Adjustment
Home QB Adjustment
Away QB Adjustment
Market Regression
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
Quarterback Data Not Available
Quarterback Data Not Available
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
28
Yards / Game
9
32
Passing Yards / Game
1
31
Rushing Yards / Game
23
25
EPA
EPA / Play
11
31
EPA / Pass
7
27
EPA / Rush
22
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
25
Interceptions / Game
12
12
Fumbles / Game
21
12
Turnover EPA / Game
5
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
24
4th Down Efficiency
11
23
RZ Efficiency
15
15
Chiefs Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
27
Yards / Game
4
14
Passing Yards / Game
15
6
Rushing Yards / Game
3
29
EPA
EPA / Play
1
26
EPA / Pass
1
17
EPA / Rush
1
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
2
Interceptions / Game
7
26
Fumbles / Game
1
24
Turnover EPA / Game
32
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
9
4th Down Efficiency
8
11
RZ Efficiency
1
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Chiefs
4-6
SU
8-1-1
ATS
0-0-10
O/U