BUFBills
6-3
21
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
46°F
15 mph
17
KCChiefs
4-5
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
46°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
0
0
14
21
Chiefs
0
3
7
7
17
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
299
378
Total Plays
66
72
Yards / Play
4.5
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.08
Passing Yards
216
275
Comp/Att
22/36(61%)
28/48(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.40
+0.01
Rushing Yards
75
103
Rush Attempts
26
19
Yards / Rush
2.9
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
24
Passing 1st downs
15
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
53%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
9
7
3rd Down Attempts
17
15
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.23
Sacks
4
5
Sack Yards
-16
-66
Sack EPA
-3.42
-10.64
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
45
57
Penalty EPA
-4.95
-4.27
Preview data is limited for games before 2009
Model projections and totals are not available before 2009, meaning preview data is limited to spread and margin trends, and team stats.
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
MarketN/A
ModelN/A
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
Home nfelo
Away nfelo
Home Field
Base HFA
Divisional Adj
Home Bye Adj
Away Bye Adj
Surface Adj
Time Adj
Net QB Adjustment
Home QB Adjustment
Away QB Adjustment
Market Regression
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
Quarterback Data Not Available
Quarterback Data Not Available
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
23
Yards / Game
8
21
Passing Yards / Game
6
28
Rushing Yards / Game
10
22
EPA
EPA / Play
24
25
EPA / Pass
13
25
EPA / Rush
23
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
20
Interceptions / Game
1
23
Fumbles / Game
11
13
Turnover EPA / Game
31
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
23
4th Down Efficiency
2
30
RZ Efficiency
17
30
Chiefs Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
22
Yards / Game
7
4
Passing Yards / Game
5
7
Rushing Yards / Game
25
6
EPA
EPA / Play
9
19
EPA / Pass
9
12
EPA / Rush
22
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
3
Interceptions / Game
9
17
Fumbles / Game
11
10
Turnover EPA / Game
15
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
12
4th Down Efficiency
29
23
RZ Efficiency
18
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Chiefs
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
0-0-10
O/U