BUFBills
4-8
16
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
42°F
3 mph
10
KCChiefs
3-9
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
42°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
3
3
3
16
Chiefs
0
3
7
0
10
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
273
354
Total Plays
57
73
Yards / Play
4.8
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.25
Passing Yards
73
202
Comp/Att
12/20(60%)
26/43(60%)
Yards / Pass
3.6
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.74
-0.43
Rushing Yards
200
152
Rush Attempts
35
26
Yards / Rush
5.7
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
16
Passing 1st downs
4
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
25%
39%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
18
Red Zone %
25%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
4
Interceptions
1
4
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-14.49
-13.10
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-13
-22
Sack EPA
-5.40
-8.47
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
40
43
Penalty EPA
-4.55
-4.08
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model55.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-7
Home nfelo
1,291
Away nfelo
1,399
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+27.9
Home QB Adjustment
-2.4
Away QB Adjustment
-30.3
Market Regression
-38.1
Final Difference
-38.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-30.3
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
29
Yards / Game
30
30
Passing Yards / Game
27
8
Rushing Yards / Game
15
30
EPA
EPA / Play
28
25
EPA / Pass
27
18
EPA / Rush
17
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
5
Interceptions / Game
24
16
Fumbles / Game
8
7
Turnover EPA / Game
16
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
14
4th Down Efficiency
19
24
RZ Efficiency
32
22
Chiefs Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
14
Yards / Game
25
19
Passing Yards / Game
20
7
Rushing Yards / Game
12
31
EPA
EPA / Play
26
13
EPA / Pass
26
2
EPA / Rush
26
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
4
Interceptions / Game
18
2
Fumbles / Game
13
30
Turnover EPA / Game
18
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
24
4th Down Efficiency
17
23
RZ Efficiency
23
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Chiefs
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-2-2
O/U