nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ chiefs week 14, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

BUF logo
BUFBills
4-8
16
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
42°F
3 mph
10
KCChiefs
3-9
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
42°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
3
3
3
16
Chiefs
0
3
7
0
10

Spread

BUF logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
38

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
273
354
Total Plays
57
73
Yards / Play
4.8
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.25
Passing Yards
73
202
Comp/Att
12/20(60%)
26/43(60%)
Yards / Pass
3.6
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.74
-0.43
Rushing Yards
200
152
Rush Attempts
35
26
Yards / Rush
5.7
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
13
16
Passing 1st downs
4
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
25%
39%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
18
Red Zone %
25%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
3
4
Interceptions
1
4
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-14.49
-13.10
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-13
-22
Sack EPA
-5.40
-8.47
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
40
43
Penalty EPA
-4.55
-4.08

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model55.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-7
Home nfelo
1,290
Away nfelo
1,398
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+27.9
Home QB Adjustment
-2.4
Away QB Adjustment
-30.3
Market Regression
-38.1
Final Difference
-38.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-30.3
Value
Ptile
11/30
-4.7
18
12/07
-5.9
11
12/14
3.0
72
12/21
-2.2
34
12/28
-2.7
30
10/25
-3.5
27
11/01
-7.1
11
11/22
-2.4
35
11/29
1.1
56
12/03
-6.7
12
M. Cassel headshot

M. Cassel

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
Value
Ptile
09/27
-0.4
47
10/04
-3.5
27
10/11
1.6
60
10/18
-5.6
16
10/25
-13.5
1
11/08
0.4
53
11/15
-4.2
23
11/22
-1.1
43
11/29
-0.1
48
12/06
-10.8
2

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Bills logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
28
29
Yards / Game
30
30
Passing Yards / Game
27
8
Rushing Yards / Game
15
30

EPA

EPA / Play
28
25
EPA / Pass
27
18
EPA / Rush
17
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
5
Interceptions / Game
24
16
Fumbles / Game
8
7
Turnover EPA / Game
16
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
14
4th Down Efficiency
19
24
RZ Efficiency
32
22
Chiefs Offense vs Bills Defense
Chiefs logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
23
14
Yards / Game
25
19
Passing Yards / Game
20
7
Rushing Yards / Game
12
31

EPA

EPA / Play
26
13
EPA / Pass
26
2
EPA / Rush
26
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
4
Interceptions / Game
18
2
Fumbles / Game
13
30
Turnover EPA / Game
18
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
24
4th Down Efficiency
17
23
RZ Efficiency
23
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
-20
L
L
U
10/04
-28
L
L
O
10/11
-3
L
L
U
10/18
3
W
W
U
10/25
11
W
W
U
11/01
-21
L
L
U
11/15
-24
L
L
O
11/22
-3
L
W
U
11/29
17
W
W
O
12/03
-6
L
L
U
KC logo

Chiefs

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-2-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
-20
L
L
O
10/04
-11
L
L
P
10/11
-6
L
W
O
10/18
8
W
W
U
10/25
-30
L
L
P
11/08
-3
L
W
O
11/15
6
W
W
U
11/22
3
W
W
O
11/29
-29
L
L
O
12/06
-31
L
L
O