BUFBills
15-4
29
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
31°F
8 mph
32
KCChiefs
16-2
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
31°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
13
6
7
29
Chiefs
7
14
0
11
32
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
374
370
Total Plays
70
64
Yards / Play
5.3
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.24
Passing Yards
227
235
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
18/27(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
8.7
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.64
Rushing Yards
147
135
Rush Attempts
33
35
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
28
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
10
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
36%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.73
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-10
-12
Sack EPA
-2.13
-3.37
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
48
21
Penalty EPA
-5.87
-2.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model47.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-47
Home nfelo
1,582
Away nfelo
1,668
Home Field
+59.5
Base HFA
+38.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.6
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-16.7
Home QB Adjustment
+10.7
Away QB Adjustment
+27.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+27.4
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+10.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
6
Yards / Game
10
9
Passing Yards / Game
32
17
Rushing Yards / Game
9
10
EPA
EPA / Play
2
16
EPA / Pass
3
25
EPA / Rush
3
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
15
Interceptions / Game
2
17
Fumbles / Game
1
26
Turnover EPA / Game
32
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
24
4th Down Efficiency
2
9
RZ Efficiency
2
11
Chiefs Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
12
Yards / Game
19
16
Passing Yards / Game
19
24
Rushing Yards / Game
26
13
EPA
EPA / Play
10
14
EPA / Pass
10
23
EPA / Rush
12
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
32
Interceptions / Game
14
10
Fumbles / Game
5
2
Turnover EPA / Game
22
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
30
4th Down Efficiency
6
14
RZ Efficiency
21
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Chiefs
8-2
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U