BUFBills
2-4
5
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
037
INDColts
1-5
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
0
3
0
3
Colts
0
24
0
13
37
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
303
378
Total Plays
55
61
Yards / Play
5.5
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.49
+0.16
Passing Yards
168
--
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
17/23(74%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.90
+0.40
Rushing Yards
135
222
Rush Attempts
22
38
Yards / Rush
6.1
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
22
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
22%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-24.27
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-7.63
--
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
58
35
Penalty EPA
-4.89
-3.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+158
Home nfelo
1,397
Away nfelo
1,326
Home Field
+57.5
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+28.7
Home QB Adjustment
+31.3
Away QB Adjustment
+2.6
Market Regression
-26.4
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
D. Anderson
Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.6
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+31.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
8
Yards / Game
30
11
Passing Yards / Game
32
4
Rushing Yards / Game
8
9
EPA
EPA / Play
31
8
EPA / Pass
31
6
EPA / Rush
20
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
31
Interceptions / Game
31
13
Fumbles / Game
11
12
Turnover EPA / Game
6
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
18
4th Down Efficiency
31
7
RZ Efficiency
16
11
Colts Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
19
Yards / Game
7
2
Passing Yards / Game
24
1
Rushing Yards / Game
16
15
EPA
EPA / Play
10
4
EPA / Pass
10
2
EPA / Rush
18
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
14
Interceptions / Game
22
7
Fumbles / Game
21
2
Turnover EPA / Game
9
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
11
4th Down Efficiency
19
13
RZ Efficiency
7
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Colts
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U