BUFBills
4-6
13
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
020
INDColts
6-4
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
3
0
7
13
Colts
1
6
7
0
14
Spread
-2
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
304
312
Total Plays
58
70
Yards / Play
5.2
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.01
Passing Yards
169
225
Comp/Att
17/33(52%)
20/37(54%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.07
-0.03
Rushing Yards
135
87
Rush Attempts
23
29
Yards / Rush
5.9
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
31%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
33%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-0.38
-4.19
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-11
-15
Sack EPA
-3.83
-7.07
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
--
37
Penalty EPA
--
-4.82
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+16
Home nfelo
1,407
Away nfelo
1,462
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.6
Home QB Adjustment
+14.3
Away QB Adjustment
+4.7
Market Regression
-26.1
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+14.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
21
Yards / Game
19
27
Passing Yards / Game
28
10
Rushing Yards / Game
6
29
EPA
EPA / Play
20
26
EPA / Pass
21
27
EPA / Rush
10
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
9
Interceptions / Game
22
22
Fumbles / Game
31
30
Turnover EPA / Game
5
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
15
4th Down Efficiency
7
9
RZ Efficiency
22
8
Colts Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
26
Yards / Game
10
21
Passing Yards / Game
5
7
Rushing Yards / Game
18
31
EPA
EPA / Play
16
28
EPA / Pass
17
15
EPA / Rush
11
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
23
Interceptions / Game
26
20
Fumbles / Game
11
20
Turnover EPA / Game
7
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
32
4th Down Efficiency
2
18
RZ Efficiency
21
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U