BUFBills
6-7
25
TBD
FedExField
43°F
3 mph
35
WASCommanders
6-7
TBD
FedExField
43°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
0
17
8
25
Commanders
7
14
7
7
35
Spread
+2
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
454
431
Total Plays
64
56
Yards / Play
7.1
7.7
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.38
Passing Yards
212
308
Comp/Att
16/27(59%)
22/28(79%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
11.0
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.75
Rushing Yards
242
123
Rush Attempts
32
27
Yards / Rush
7.6
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.38
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
11
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
38%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
0%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+4.67
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-23
-11
Sack EPA
-6.94
-1.82
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
56
6
Penalty EPA
-9.34
-1.72
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-30
Home nfelo
1,413
Away nfelo
1,534
Home Field
+80.4
Base HFA
+59.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+10.1
Home QB Adjustment
+22.9
Away QB Adjustment
+12.8
Market Regression
-26.4
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+22.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
19
Yards / Game
13
26
Passing Yards / Game
28
11
Rushing Yards / Game
1
26
EPA
EPA / Play
12
20
EPA / Pass
14
20
EPA / Rush
2
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
26
Interceptions / Game
5
25
Fumbles / Game
11
1
Turnover EPA / Game
32
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
10
4th Down Efficiency
24
22
RZ Efficiency
26
16
Commanders Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
15
Yards / Game
15
20
Passing Yards / Game
7
22
Rushing Yards / Game
20
16
EPA
EPA / Play
13
16
EPA / Pass
6
15
EPA / Rush
28
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
11
Interceptions / Game
9
6
Fumbles / Game
13
15
Turnover EPA / Game
19
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
23
4th Down Efficiency
15
1
RZ Efficiency
11
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Commanders
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U