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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ commanders week 15, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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BUF logo
BUFBills
6-7
25
TBD
FedExField
43°F
3 mph
35
WASCommanders
6-7
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
43°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
0
17
8
25
Commanders
7
14
7
7
35

Spread

WAS logo
+2

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
454
431
Total Plays
64
56
Yards / Play
7.1
7.7
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.38
Passing Yards
212
308
Comp/Att
16/27(59%)
22/28(79%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
11.0
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.75
Rushing Yards
242
123
Rush Attempts
32
27
Yards / Rush
7.6
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.38
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
11
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
38%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
0%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+4.67
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-23
-11
Sack EPA
-6.94
-1.82
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
56
6
Penalty EPA
-9.34
-1.72

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-29
Home nfelo
1,413
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+81.3
Base HFA
+60.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+10.1
Home QB Adjustment
+22.9
Away QB Adjustment
+12.8
Market Regression
-31.3
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0

Quarterbacks

T. Taylor headshot

T. Taylor

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
Value
Ptile
09/20
-1.9
36
09/27
7.7
93
10/04
-0.0
51
10/11
1.3
61
11/08
0.4
52
11/12
-4.1
20
11/23
-3.2
28
11/29
8.6
95
12/06
6.2
88
12/13
0.6
54
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+22.9
Value
Ptile
10/04
5.8
86
10/11
-3.2
28
10/18
-3.8
23
10/25
12.6
99
11/08
-2.5
32
11/15
5.8
86
11/22
-3.3
27
11/29
5.1
83
12/07
-0.4
49
12/13
3.1
74

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Commanders Defense
Bills logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
12
19
Yards / Game
13
26
Passing Yards / Game
28
11
Rushing Yards / Game
1
26

EPA

EPA / Play
12
20
EPA / Pass
14
20
EPA / Rush
2
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
26
Interceptions / Game
5
25
Fumbles / Game
11
1
Turnover EPA / Game
32
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
10
4th Down Efficiency
24
22
RZ Efficiency
26
16
Commanders Offense vs Bills Defense
Commanders logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
11
15
Yards / Game
15
20
Passing Yards / Game
7
22
Rushing Yards / Game
20
16

EPA

EPA / Play
13
16
EPA / Pass
6
15
EPA / Rush
28
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
11
Interceptions / Game
9
6
Fumbles / Game
13
15
Turnover EPA / Game
19
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
23
4th Down Efficiency
15
1
RZ Efficiency
11
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
-14
L
L
U
10/11
1
W
W
U
10/18
-13
L
L
O
10/25
-3
L
L
O
11/08
16
W
W
O
11/12
5
W
W
U
11/23
-7
L
P
U
11/29
-8
L
L
O
12/06
9
W
W
O
12/13
-3
L
L
U
WAS logo

Commanders

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
3
W
W
U
10/11
-6
L
W
U
10/18
-14
L
L
O
10/25
1
W
L
O
11/08
-17
L
L
U
11/15
33
W
W
O
11/22
-28
L
L
O
11/29
6
W
W
U
12/07
-3
L
L
U
12/13
3
W
W
O