BUFBills
8-3
26
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
015
DALCowboys
6-5
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
13
10
3
26
Cowboys
7
0
0
8
15
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
356
428
Total Plays
63
73
Yards / Play
5.7
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.11
Passing Yards
232
325
Comp/Att
20/25(80%)
32/50(64%)
Yards / Pass
9.3
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.55
-0.10
Rushing Yards
124
103
Rush Attempts
34
19
Yards / Rush
3.6
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.18
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
32
Passing 1st downs
11
22
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
5
3rd Down %
43%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-11.14
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-27
-32
Sack EPA
-5.69
-12.53
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
53
66
Penalty EPA
-6.91
-8.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+151
Home nfelo
1,581
Away nfelo
1,487
Home Field
+57.3
Base HFA
+48.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.7
Net QB Adjustment
+0.6
Home QB Adjustment
+23.4
Away QB Adjustment
+22.8
Market Regression
-29.8
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.8
Team Elo Adj
+22.8
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
+23.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
9
Yards / Game
24
9
Passing Yards / Game
21
22
Rushing Yards / Game
7
10
EPA
EPA / Play
20
12
EPA / Pass
20
10
EPA / Rush
10
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
31
Interceptions / Game
15
30
Fumbles / Game
15
12
Turnover EPA / Game
23
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
3
4th Down Efficiency
22
12
RZ Efficiency
20
6
Cowboys Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
2
Yards / Game
1
4
Passing Yards / Game
6
5
Rushing Yards / Game
4
11
EPA
EPA / Play
3
4
EPA / Pass
3
5
EPA / Rush
3
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
19
Interceptions / Game
14
12
Fumbles / Game
4
18
Turnover EPA / Game
24
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
9
4th Down Efficiency
20
6
RZ Efficiency
16
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Cowboys
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U