BUFBills
1-0
31
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
90°F
5 mph
28
MIADolphins
0-1
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
90°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
10
0
14
31
Dolphins
7
3
3
15
28
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
523
412
Total Plays
59
73
Yards / Play
8.9
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.37
+0.20
Passing Yards
411
313
Comp/Att
24/35(69%)
31/48(65%)
Yards / Pass
11.7
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.67
+0.15
Rushing Yards
112
99
Rush Attempts
23
22
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
28
Passing 1st downs
15
20
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-2.82
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-4
-17
Sack EPA
-1.02
-4.39
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
55
20
Penalty EPA
-5.51
-3.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-154
Home nfelo
1,361
Away nfelo
1,512
Home Field
+5.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.8
Home QB Adjustment
+3.2
Away QB Adjustment
+11.9
Market Regression
-8.0
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+11.9
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
4
Yards / Game
5
19
Passing Yards / Game
6
28
Rushing Yards / Game
24
16
EPA
EPA / Play
4
5
EPA / Pass
3
3
EPA / Rush
16
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
18
Interceptions / Game
9
1
Fumbles / Game
22
3
Turnover EPA / Game
24
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
1
4th Down Efficiency
1
9
RZ Efficiency
12
7
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
14
Yards / Game
23
18
Passing Yards / Game
17
13
Rushing Yards / Game
21
20
EPA
EPA / Play
17
16
EPA / Pass
17
13
EPA / Rush
25
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
21
Interceptions / Game
17
12
Fumbles / Game
12
5
Turnover EPA / Game
16
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
19
4th Down Efficiency
2
16
RZ Efficiency
16
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
5-3-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U