BUFBills
1-0
31
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
86°F
3 mph
10
MIADolphins
1-0
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
86°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
17
1
0
25
Dolphins
7
3
0
0
10
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
247
351
Total Plays
45
75
Yards / Play
5.5
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.28
Passing Yards
--
212
Comp/Att
13/19(68%)
25/39(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.59
-0.42
Rushing Yards
108
139
Rush Attempts
26
34
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
20
Passing 1st downs
5
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
33%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
15
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-15.68
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-13
Sack EPA
--
-6.32
Penalties
1
7
Penalty Yards
--
50
Penalty EPA
--
-7.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model55.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+11
Home nfelo
1,578
Away nfelo
1,598
Home Field
+42.0
Base HFA
+46.8
Divisional Adj
-21.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-10.7
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
+12.8
Market Regression
+7.0
Final Difference
36.2
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
9
Yards / Game
10
6
Passing Yards / Game
32
7
Rushing Yards / Game
9
8
EPA
EPA / Play
2
11
EPA / Pass
3
12
EPA / Rush
3
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
16
Interceptions / Game
2
22
Fumbles / Game
1
19
Turnover EPA / Game
32
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
5
4th Down Efficiency
2
6
RZ Efficiency
2
5
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
12
Yards / Game
18
16
Passing Yards / Game
17
24
Rushing Yards / Game
21
13
EPA
EPA / Play
21
14
EPA / Pass
13
23
EPA / Rush
31
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
32
Interceptions / Game
10
10
Fumbles / Game
22
2
Turnover EPA / Game
12
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
30
4th Down Efficiency
25
14
RZ Efficiency
16
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Dolphins
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U