BUFBills
1-1
41
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
87°F
6 mph
14
MIADolphins
1-1
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
87°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
14
7
0
14
35
Dolphins
0
0
8
6
14
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
428
393
Total Plays
63
72
Yards / Play
6.8
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.32
-0.17
Passing Yards
--
291
Comp/Att
21/29(72%)
26/50(52%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.79
-0.30
Rushing Yards
151
102
Rush Attempts
34
20
Yards / Rush
4.4
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.15
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
21
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
54%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-15.52
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-8
Sack EPA
--
-1.78
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
40
36
Penalty EPA
-4.15
-6.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model53.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+72
Home nfelo
1,491
Away nfelo
1,525
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+49.5
Home QB Adjustment
+11.3
Away QB Adjustment
-38.2
Market Regression
-38.5
Final Difference
26.9
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-38.2
Value
Ptile
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
18
Yards / Game
13
25
Passing Yards / Game
28
5
Rushing Yards / Game
1
28
EPA
EPA / Play
12
22
EPA / Pass
14
31
EPA / Rush
2
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
7
Interceptions / Game
5
17
Fumbles / Game
11
31
Turnover EPA / Game
32
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
28
4th Down Efficiency
24
5
RZ Efficiency
26
22
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
15
Yards / Game
27
20
Passing Yards / Game
8
22
Rushing Yards / Game
23
16
EPA
EPA / Play
23
16
EPA / Pass
20
15
EPA / Rush
17
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
11
Interceptions / Game
11
6
Fumbles / Game
3
15
Turnover EPA / Game
23
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
23
4th Down Efficiency
28
1
RZ Efficiency
19
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Dolphins
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U