BUFBills
2-0
19
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
70°F
021
MIADolphins
2-0
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
7
3
0
17
Dolphins
7
7
0
7
21
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
54
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
497
212
Total Plays
90
39
Yards / Play
5.5
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.14
Passing Yards
382
171
Comp/Att
42/63(67%)
13/20(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.34
Rushing Yards
115
41
Rush Attempts
23
17
Yards / Rush
5.0
2.4
EPA / Rush
+0.14
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
31
15
Passing 1st downs
21
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
61%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
11
3
3rd Down Attempts
18
8
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.39
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-18
-15
Sack EPA
-10.29
-1.95
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
52
20
Penalty EPA
-7.19
-2.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-113
Home nfelo
1,537
Away nfelo
1,681
Home Field
+34.0
Base HFA
+37.9
Divisional Adj
-17.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-2.8
Home QB Adjustment
+17.9
Away QB Adjustment
+20.7
Market Regression
+17.9
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+20.7
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+17.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
24
Yards / Game
2
19
Passing Yards / Game
2
24
Rushing Yards / Game
8
4
EPA
EPA / Play
3
22
EPA / Pass
5
17
EPA / Rush
7
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
23
Interceptions / Game
26
27
Fumbles / Game
31
27
Turnover EPA / Game
2
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
26
4th Down Efficiency
16
13
RZ Efficiency
9
24
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
4
Yards / Game
9
7
Passing Yards / Game
4
25
Rushing Yards / Game
27
6
EPA
EPA / Play
11
6
EPA / Pass
8
12
EPA / Rush
20
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
17
Interceptions / Game
26
4
Fumbles / Game
5
13
Turnover EPA / Game
15
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
6
4th Down Efficiency
11
22
RZ Efficiency
10
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Dolphins
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U