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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ dolphins week 7, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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BUF logo
BUFBills
2-4
23
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
87°F
5 mph
21
MIADolphins
3-2
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
87°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
8
3
0
6
17
Dolphins
0
14
7
0
21

Spread

BUF logo
+6

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
268
293
Total Plays
66
64
Yards / Play
4.1
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.15
Passing Yards
178
173
Comp/Att
21/32(66%)
19/37(51%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.03
-0.25
Rushing Yards
90
120
Rush Attempts
30
25
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.08
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
15
19
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
47%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
19
13
Red Zone %
25%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.64
-14.31
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-24
-21
Sack EPA
-5.62
-6.18
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
53
32
Penalty EPA
-4.80
-6.70

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model70.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+194
Home nfelo
1,479
Away nfelo
1,431
Home Field
+74.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+71.8
Home QB Adjustment
-7.2
Away QB Adjustment
-79.0
Market Regression
-72.8
Final Difference
152.1
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

T. Lewis headshot

T. Lewis

Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-79.0
Value
Ptile
12/30
-1.0
42
10/13
1.1
57
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-7.2
Value
Ptile
12/02
-3.8
26
12/09
-1.0
42
12/16
6.9
89
12/23
0.1
50
12/30
-9.1
4
09/08
-3.0
32
09/15
-0.4
47
09/22
-2.8
34
09/30
-3.4
28
10/06
-3.2
29

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Bills logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
22
8
Yards / Game
19
20
Passing Yards / Game
29
16
Rushing Yards / Game
2
24

EPA

EPA / Play
26
14
EPA / Pass
31
11
EPA / Rush
9
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
1
Interceptions / Game
15
11
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
12
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
15
4th Down Efficiency
30
21
RZ Efficiency
29
5
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Dolphins logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
26
20
Yards / Game
27
10
Passing Yards / Game
18
7
Rushing Yards / Game
26
27

EPA

EPA / Play
20
8
EPA / Pass
20
2
EPA / Rush
28
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
4
Interceptions / Game
20
2
Fumbles / Game
9
24
Turnover EPA / Game
21
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
14
4th Down Efficiency
31
11
RZ Efficiency
11
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/09
-3
L
L
U
12/16
-33
L
L
O
12/23
-14
L
L
U
12/30
19
W
W
U
09/08
-2
L
W
U
09/15
1
W
W
O
09/22
-7
L
L
O
09/29
3
W
W
U
10/03
-13
L
L
O
10/13
-3
L
W
O
MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/02
-7
L
P
U
12/09
-14
L
L
O
12/16
21
W
W
U
12/23
14
W
W
U
12/30
-28
L
L
U
09/08
13
W
W
U
09/15
4
W
W
O
09/22
4
W
W
O
09/30
-21
L
L
O
10/06
-3
L
L
O