BUFBills
2-4
23
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
87°F
5 mph
21
MIADolphins
3-2
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
87°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
8
3
0
6
17
Dolphins
0
14
7
0
21
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
268
293
Total Plays
66
64
Yards / Play
4.1
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.15
Passing Yards
178
173
Comp/Att
21/32(66%)
19/37(51%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.03
-0.25
Rushing Yards
90
120
Rush Attempts
30
25
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.08
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
19
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
47%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
19
13
Red Zone %
25%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.64
-14.31
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-24
-21
Sack EPA
-5.62
-6.18
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
53
32
Penalty EPA
-4.80
-6.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+192
Home nfelo
1,479
Away nfelo
1,433
Home Field
+74.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+71.8
Home QB Adjustment
-7.2
Away QB Adjustment
-79.0
Market Regression
-83.5
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
T. Lewis
Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-79.0
Value
Ptile
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-7.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
8
Yards / Game
19
20
Passing Yards / Game
29
16
Rushing Yards / Game
2
24
EPA
EPA / Play
26
14
EPA / Pass
31
11
EPA / Rush
9
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
1
Interceptions / Game
15
11
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
12
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
15
4th Down Efficiency
30
21
RZ Efficiency
29
5
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
20
Yards / Game
27
10
Passing Yards / Game
18
7
Rushing Yards / Game
26
27
EPA
EPA / Play
20
8
EPA / Pass
20
2
EPA / Rush
28
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
4
Interceptions / Game
20
2
Fumbles / Game
9
24
Turnover EPA / Game
21
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
14
4th Down Efficiency
31
11
RZ Efficiency
11
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U