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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ dolphins week 7, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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BUF logo
BUFBills
4-2
25
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
81°F
11 mph
28
MIADolphins
2-4
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
81°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
7
7
8
25
Dolphins
3
3
8
14
28

Spread

MIA logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
269
456
Total Plays
55
68
Yards / Play
4.9
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.09
Passing Yards
202
200
Comp/Att
14/29(48%)
15/26(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.24
Rushing Yards
67
256
Rush Attempts
22
41
Yards / Rush
3.0
6.2
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
16
26
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
15
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
23%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-21
-6
Sack EPA
-7.75
-1.39
Penalties
6
13
Penalty Yards
45
116
Penalty EPA
-3.14
-10.36

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model58.8%
Spread Pick
BUF logo
Bills-2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.8%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-124
Home nfelo
1,433
Away nfelo
1,593
Home Field
+52.0
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.3
Home QB Adjustment
-8.1
Away QB Adjustment
+8.2
Market Regression
+6.2
Final Difference
-62.1
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

T. Taylor headshot

T. Taylor

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
Value
Ptile
12/13
0.6
54
12/20
1.9
64
12/27
-2.6
32
01/03
2.7
71
09/11
-4.4
17
09/15
6.7
89
09/25
-2.4
31
10/02
3.0
72
10/09
-1.9
35
10/16
3.0
73
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-8.1
Value
Ptile
12/14
0.5
54
12/20
-2.5
33
12/27
-1.9
36
01/03
7.7
93
09/11
-3.7
22
09/18
7.9
92
09/25
2.5
68
09/29
-6.7
9
10/09
-10.8
2
10/16
2.6
69

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Bills logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
10
19
Yards / Game
16
29
Passing Yards / Game
27
11
Rushing Yards / Game
1
31

EPA

EPA / Play
11
19
EPA / Pass
19
12
EPA / Rush
1
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
21
Interceptions / Game
5
7
Fumbles / Game
2
11
Turnover EPA / Game
30
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
6
4th Down Efficiency
10
20
RZ Efficiency
10
22
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Dolphins logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
19
16
Yards / Game
25
19
Passing Yards / Game
32
8
Rushing Yards / Game
14
29

EPA

EPA / Play
21
16
EPA / Pass
18
19
EPA / Rush
19
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
4
Interceptions / Game
20
20
Fumbles / Game
11
26
Turnover EPA / Game
13
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
19
4th Down Efficiency
32
6
RZ Efficiency
14
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
-3
L
L
U
12/20
-10
L
L
O
12/27
10
W
W
U
01/03
5
W
W
U
09/11
-6
L
L
U
09/15
-6
L
L
O
09/25
15
W
W
O
10/02
16
W
W
U
10/09
11
W
W
O
10/16
29
W
W
O
MIA logo

Dolphins

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/14
-7
L
L
O
12/20
-16
L
L
U
12/27
-6
L
L
U
01/03
10
W
W
U
09/11
-2
L
W
U
09/18
-7
L
L
O
09/25
6
W
L
O
09/29
-15
L
L
U
10/09
-13
L
L
O
10/16
15
W
W
U