BUFBills
4-2
25
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
81°F
11 mph
28
MIADolphins
2-4
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
81°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
7
7
8
25
Dolphins
3
3
8
14
28
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
269
456
Total Plays
55
68
Yards / Play
4.9
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.09
Passing Yards
202
200
Comp/Att
14/29(48%)
15/26(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.24
Rushing Yards
67
256
Rush Attempts
22
41
Yards / Rush
3.0
6.2
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
26
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
15
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
23%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-21
-6
Sack EPA
-7.75
-1.39
Penalties
6
13
Penalty Yards
45
116
Penalty EPA
-3.14
-10.36
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model58.8%
Spread Pick
Bills-2.5
Expected Value
+5.8%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-121
Home nfelo
1,437
Away nfelo
1,593
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.3
Home QB Adjustment
-8.1
Away QB Adjustment
+8.2
Market Regression
+6.8
Final Difference
-61.5
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-8.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
19
Yards / Game
16
29
Passing Yards / Game
27
11
Rushing Yards / Game
1
31
EPA
EPA / Play
11
19
EPA / Pass
19
12
EPA / Rush
1
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
21
Interceptions / Game
5
7
Fumbles / Game
2
11
Turnover EPA / Game
30
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
6
4th Down Efficiency
10
20
RZ Efficiency
10
22
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
16
Yards / Game
25
19
Passing Yards / Game
32
8
Rushing Yards / Game
14
29
EPA
EPA / Play
21
16
EPA / Pass
18
19
EPA / Rush
19
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
4
Interceptions / Game
20
20
Fumbles / Game
11
26
Turnover EPA / Game
13
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
19
4th Down Efficiency
32
6
RZ Efficiency
14
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Dolphins
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U