BUFBills
6-2
13
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
84°F
6 mph
30
MIADolphins
2-7
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
84°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
0
0
13
13
Dolphins
7
9
0
14
30
Spread
+8.5
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
376
370
Total Plays
66
53
Yards / Play
5.7
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.34
Passing Yards
289
--
Comp/Att
28/41(68%)
15/21(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.43
Rushing Yards
87
197
Rush Attempts
22
32
Yards / Rush
4.0
6.2
EPA / Rush
-0.41
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-12.04
-2.06
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-1.83
--
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
67
35
Penalty EPA
-5.50
-5.60
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market77.4%
Model77.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-205
Home nfelo
1,395
Away nfelo
1,620
Home Field
+38.3
Base HFA
+42.6
Divisional Adj
-19.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.4
Home QB Adjustment
-15.8
Away QB Adjustment
+2.6
Market Regression
+17.4
Final Difference
-213.9
Model Spread
+8.5
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.6
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
-15.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
20
Yards / Game
2
23
Passing Yards / Game
10
28
Rushing Yards / Game
1
29
EPA
EPA / Play
2
27
EPA / Pass
4
30
EPA / Rush
2
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
19
Interceptions / Game
16
30
Fumbles / Game
10
4
Turnover EPA / Game
22
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
26
4th Down Efficiency
20
29
RZ Efficiency
5
5
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
14
Yards / Game
24
12
Passing Yards / Game
28
3
Rushing Yards / Game
21
31
EPA
EPA / Play
16
25
EPA / Pass
19
8
EPA / Rush
17
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
20
Interceptions / Game
30
14
Fumbles / Game
15
5
Turnover EPA / Game
15
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
18
4th Down Efficiency
20
23
RZ Efficiency
21
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Dolphins
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U