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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ dolphins week 11, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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BUF logo
BUFBills
6-3
37
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
62°F
13 mph
20
MIADolphins
2-7
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
62°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
6
17
7
7
37
Dolphins
0
14
0
6
20

Spread

BUF logo
-7

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
424
303
Total Plays
67
66
Yards / Play
6.3
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.13
Passing Yards
--
280
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
32/46(70%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.37
-0.22
Rushing Yards
168
23
Rush Attempts
34
13
Yards / Rush
4.9
1.8
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
36%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-2.76
Sacks
--
7
Sack Yards
--
-43
Sack EPA
--
-9.08
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
50
44
Penalty EPA
-4.10
-5.00

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-148
Home nfelo
1,263
Away nfelo
1,461
Home Field
+45.2
Base HFA
+50.3
Divisional Adj
-22.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.0
Home QB Adjustment
+14.6
Away QB Adjustment
+8.7
Market Regression
-15.6
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0

Quarterbacks

J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.7
Value
Ptile
12/30
12.0
98
09/08
0.6
56
09/15
1.1
61
09/22
0.7
57
09/29
-8.2
9
10/06
-1.1
45
10/20
0.1
53
10/27
-3.6
27
11/03
-0.6
48
11/10
3.4
74
R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.6
Value
Ptile
09/30
-7.3
9
11/04
0.4
49
11/11
2.3
65
11/18
-6.3
11
09/08
-5.9
16
09/15
-14.2
1
10/20
4.6
82
10/28
-5.4
18
11/03
0.6
56
11/10
-3.6
27

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Bills logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
23
32
Yards / Game
24
30
Passing Yards / Game
21
29
Rushing Yards / Game
7
27

EPA

EPA / Play
20
32
EPA / Pass
20
32
EPA / Rush
10
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
1
Interceptions / Game
15
13
Fumbles / Game
15
32
Turnover EPA / Game
23
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
24
4th Down Efficiency
22
28
RZ Efficiency
20
28
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Dolphins logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
25
2
Yards / Game
27
4
Passing Yards / Game
4
5
Rushing Yards / Game
32
11

EPA

EPA / Play
27
4
EPA / Pass
26
5
EPA / Rush
30
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
19
Interceptions / Game
27
12
Fumbles / Game
4
18
Turnover EPA / Game
9
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
9
4th Down Efficiency
17
6
RZ Efficiency
18
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/30
25
W
W
O
09/08
1
W
W
U
09/15
14
W
W
U
09/22
4
W
L
U
09/29
-6
L
W
U
10/06
7
W
W
U
10/20
10
W
L
O
10/27
-18
L
L
O
11/03
15
W
W
U
11/10
-3
L
P
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/30
-25
L
L
O
09/08
-49
L
L
O
09/15
-43
L
L
U
09/22
-25
L
L
U
09/29
-20
L
L
U
10/13
-1
L
W
U
10/20
-10
L
W
O
10/28
-13
L
W
U
11/03
8
W
W
O
11/10
4
W
W
U