BUFBills
6-3
37
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
62°F
13 mph
20
MIADolphins
2-7
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
62°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
6
17
7
7
37
Dolphins
0
14
0
6
20
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
424
303
Total Plays
67
66
Yards / Play
6.3
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.13
Passing Yards
--
280
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
32/46(70%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.37
-0.22
Rushing Yards
168
23
Rush Attempts
34
13
Yards / Rush
4.9
1.8
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
36%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-2.76
Sacks
--
7
Sack Yards
--
-43
Sack EPA
--
-9.08
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
50
44
Penalty EPA
-4.10
-5.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-151
Home nfelo
1,262
Away nfelo
1,464
Home Field
+44.7
Base HFA
+49.8
Divisional Adj
-22.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.0
Home QB Adjustment
+14.6
Away QB Adjustment
+8.7
Market Regression
-15.6
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+8.7
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
32
Yards / Game
24
30
Passing Yards / Game
21
29
Rushing Yards / Game
7
27
EPA
EPA / Play
20
32
EPA / Pass
21
32
EPA / Rush
10
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
1
Interceptions / Game
15
13
Fumbles / Game
15
32
Turnover EPA / Game
23
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
24
4th Down Efficiency
22
28
RZ Efficiency
20
28
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
2
Yards / Game
27
4
Passing Yards / Game
4
5
Rushing Yards / Game
32
11
EPA
EPA / Play
27
4
EPA / Pass
26
5
EPA / Rush
30
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
19
Interceptions / Game
27
12
Fumbles / Game
4
18
Turnover EPA / Game
9
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
9
4th Down Efficiency
17
6
RZ Efficiency
18
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Dolphins
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U