BUFBills
8-7
22
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
71°F
9 mph
16
MIADolphins
6-9
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
71°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
3
9
3
22
Dolphins
0
0
3
13
16
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
312
356
Total Plays
64
68
Yards / Play
4.9
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.03
Passing Yards
186
263
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
30/45(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.30
-0.05
Rushing Yards
126
93
Rush Attempts
33
22
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
21
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
42%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-1.73
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-18
-8
Sack EPA
-5.51
-2.31
Penalties
6
14
Penalty Yards
45
145
Penalty EPA
-3.77
-19.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-12
Home nfelo
1,386
Away nfelo
1,450
Home Field
+50.3
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
-25.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.0
Home QB Adjustment
+6.1
Away QB Adjustment
+4.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.1
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+6.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
29
Yards / Game
29
16
Passing Yards / Game
29
19
Rushing Yards / Game
5
14
EPA
EPA / Play
22
20
EPA / Pass
22
28
EPA / Rush
13
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
20
Interceptions / Game
12
28
Fumbles / Game
9
23
Turnover EPA / Game
28
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
9
4th Down Efficiency
30
2
RZ Efficiency
22
29
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
16
Yards / Game
25
21
Passing Yards / Game
21
14
Rushing Yards / Game
29
29
EPA
EPA / Play
28
19
EPA / Pass
26
15
EPA / Rush
30
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
9
Interceptions / Game
30
7
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
3
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
11
4th Down Efficiency
28
24
RZ Efficiency
19
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Dolphins
3-7
SU
2-6-2
ATS
8-2
O/U